When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 19x, you may consider Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ETSY) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 22.9x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
Etsy hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
How Is Etsy's Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Etsy would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 19%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 40% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 13% per year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 11% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's understandable that Etsy's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Bottom Line On Etsy's P/E
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of Etsy's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
Having said that, be aware Etsy is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is significant.
You might be able to find a better investment than Etsy. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
