King's Financial News | Swhy issued a research report stating that zto express (02057) achieved revenue of 10.675 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%; adjusted net income after 2.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. In the third quarter, the off-season price competition was relatively intense, combined with the company's strategic adjustments, performance slightly below expectations.

The bank stated that according to the company's announcement, the company's single ticket sorting cost was 0.25 yuan/ticket in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.02 yuan; single ticket transportation cost was 0.39 yuan/ticket, a year-on-year decrease of 0.04 yuan, with a core cost reduction of 0.06 yuan. The company's operational efficiency continues to improve, with the upgrading of transfer facilities and standardization reforms driving further cost optimization. At the same time, the company's announcement and earnings conference pointed out that the next phase of work will return to a market share priority strategy, including streamlining network policies, giving network certainty and confidence, accelerating scale advantages, and ensuring the reasonable and stable profitability level, focusing on the subsequent grain-producing area price situation and changes in the company's market share.

The bank further pointed out that based on the company's 24-year volume guidance and next year's strategic outlook, the bank lowered the company's 2024 volume growth rate and single ticket revenue assumptions, while the company vigorously developed KA customers, with revenue and costs growing year-on-year, so the bank raised the company's KA customer cost assumptions. Based on the above assumptions, the bank lowered the company's profit forecast for 2024-2026, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 expected to be 10.104/11.067/12.686 billion yuan (originally forecasted as 10.873/13.09/15.669 billion yuan for 24-26E), a year-on-year increase of 12%/10%/15%, corresponding to PE ratios of 11x/10x/9x. Sto express co.,ltd., yto express group, and s.f. holding all focus on the express industry as their main business, comparable to zto express. The average valuation of comparable companies in 24 is 15x (as of November 22), zto express still has significant room for comparison with the average valuation of comparable companies, maintaining a "buy" rating.