或受交付节奏影响，单三季度收入和业绩短期承压。24Q3 单季度实现营收74.09 亿，同比减少13.18%；归母净利润1.31 亿，同比减少57.01%。公司下游核心客户是飞机主机厂，而24Q3 沈飞收入同比下滑68%，根据中航沈飞表述“主要是受合同签订进度影响，相关产品既定需求未如期签订合同所致”，我们认为飞机主机厂交付节奏波动导致公司收入增速短期承压。Description of the event
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 24Q1-3 achieved revenue of 25.956 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.33%; net profit to mother of 0.726 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 29.56%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.682 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.62%. Among them, 24Q3 achieved revenue of 7.409 billion in a single quarter, down 13.18% year on year and 39.65% month on month; net profit to mother was 0.131 billion, down 57.01% year on year and 70.12% month on month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.136 billion, down 54.25% year on year and 69.14% month on month.
Incident comments
It may be affected by the pace of delivery, and revenue and performance for the third quarter of a single quarter are under pressure in the short term. 24Q3 achieved revenue of 7.409 billion in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 13.18%; net profit to mother was 0.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.01%. The company's downstream core customers are aircraft mainframes, and in 24Q3, Shen Fei's revenue fell 68% year on year. According to China Airlines Shen Fei's statement, “mainly due to the progress of contract signing, the established demand for related products was not signed as scheduled,” we believe that fluctuations in the delivery pace of aircraft OEMs have put pressure on the company's revenue growth rate in the short term.
Gross margin rebounded markedly in a single quarter, and overall profitability is expected to continue to improve based on continuous improvement of industrial chain support and increased maturity of major models. 24Q1-3 gross sales margin was 12.04%, down 0.06pcts year on year; net sales margin was 3.15%, down 1.09pcts year on year. Among them, 24Q3 gross sales margin was 13.95%, up 1.44 pcts year on year and 2.86 pcts month on month; the period cost ratio was 10.81%, up 2.66 pcts year on year and 4.85 pcts month on month; net sales margin was 2.13%, down 1.83 pcts year on year and 1.73 pcts month on month. The sales expense ratio was 2.05%, up 0.62 pcts year on year and 0.73 pcts month on month; the management cost ratio was 4.73%, up 0.75 pcts year on year, up 1.97 pcts month on month; R&D cost rate was 2.02%, up 0.22 pcts year on year, up 0.86 pcts month on month; financial cost ratio was 2.02%, up 1.07 pcts year on year, up 1.28 pcts month on month. The company's after-sales guarantee tasks have increased, and financial expenses and sales expenses have increased, leading to a decline in net interest rates.
The absorption of contract liabilities under continuous product delivery welcomed the release of a new round of demand. Maintaining a high inventory level and continued capital expenditure investment in core capacity building reflected the company's active preparation for production. The inventory balance at the end of 24Q3 was 40.227 billion, up 11% from the beginning of the period; the balance of accounts receivable and notes was 33.4 billion, up 10% from the beginning of the period; the balance of contract liabilities was 6.262 billion, down 13% from the beginning of the period, and the balance of construction in progress was 2.873 billion.
The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 1.537/1.947/2.521 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.2%/26.7%/29.5%, corresponding PE of 75/60/46X.
Risk warning
1. There is a risk that the company's gross margin will continue to decline due to the production and finalization of new aero engine models and the beginning of mass delivery; 2. The Aviation Development Group is leading the uncertain progress of the “small core, big collaboration” organizational structure change in the aero engine industry.
