By adopting the strategy of low-cost models and advanced intelligent driving functions, Tesla is expected to capture a certain market share in China. Additionally, Tesla's pure vision solution has both technological and price advantages, which may further increase domestic market share.
Intellifence Finance APP learned that Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that according to Tesla official sources, the FSD V13 version is about to be released, with performance expected to increase by 6 times. At the same time, v12.5.2 will continue to be optimized and upgraded using HW3.0. FSD will also launch Cybertruck. By combining low-cost models with advanced intelligent driving functions, Tesla is poised to capture a certain market share in China. Tesla's pure vision solution with its dual technological and price advantages may further enhance domestic market share. Robotaxi, as one of the commercialized scenarios of autonomous driving, has the potential to empower the entire industry chain with breakthroughs in technology and policy support, leading to overall development. It is recommended to pay attention to smart supply chains, Tesla's supply chain, and related vehicle targets.
Tianfeng Securities' main points are as follows:
FSD establishes the technical foundation for Robotaxi, accelerating commercial implementation.
According to Tesla officials, the FSD V13 version is about to be released with a 6-fold performance increase. At the same time, v12.5.2 will continue to optimize and upgrade using HW3.0, including improving intervention takeover mileage performance by 3 times, intelligent summoning, end-to-end on highways, eye tracking (even with sunglasses), and other functions. FSD will also launch Cybertruck. In October, actual intelligent summoning (supervised), parking, reverse, and other functions will be updated. The v13 version will increase intervention takeover mileage performance by 6 times. In Q1 2025, FSD will launch in China and Europe, currently awaiting regulatory approval.
Tianfeng Securities believes that by utilizing the strategy of low-cost models combined with advanced intelligent driving functions, Tesla is expected to gain a certain market share in China. Tesla's pure vision solution with technological and pricing dual advantages may further increase domestic market share. Simultaneously, with the introduction of FSD in China, the subscription rate for Tesla's related intelligent driving software packages is also expected to increase.
Thanks to the relatively mature autonomous driving technology and vehicle scale, China and the United States have the necessary conditions for the commercialization of Robotaxi to take place.
Specifically, at present, Robotaxi is mainly concentrated in the United States, China, and Europe. From the current progress: 1) USA: Waymo has already launched Robotaxi services in some cities in the USA, and Tesla will soon introduce Robotaxi models. 2) China: Companies like Baidu, Pony.ai, and WeRide have launched Robotaxi services, with Baidu aiming for profitability by 2025. Based on McKinsey's research, by 2030, the order value of travel services based on autonomous driving may reach around 260 billion USD. 3) Europe: Compared to the USA and China, Europe is progressing slower and still in the early stages.
Robotaxi has broad commercial prospects, driving the value surge of the industry chain.
As one of the commercialized subdivisions of autonomous driving, Robotaxi's technological breakthroughs and policy support are expected to empower the entire industry chain, leading to comprehensive development. The upstream mainly includes the underlying hardware of autonomous driving platforms, such as chips, sensors, etc.; the midstream involves related automotive software and hardware component manufacturers; and the downstream focuses on OEMs and mobility service providers as core participants. With the breakthrough in Robotaxi technology and continuous evolution of commercialization models, the entire industry chain is expected to achieve comprehensive growth.
Investment recommendation: Tesla's heavy release of Robotaxi is expected to further catalyze the autonomous driving sector's market performance, benefiting three main categories:
1) Intelligent supply chain: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems (603596.SH), Huizhou Desay SV Automotive Co., Ltd. (002920.SZ), Kebo Technology (688326.SH), ForYou Corporation (002906.SZ), Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp. (600699.SH), Keboda Technology (603786.SH), etc.
2) Tesla's supply chain: Ningbo Tuopu Group (601689.SH), Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co., Ltd. (603179.SH), Shanghai Daimay Automotive Interior Co., Ltd. (603730.SH), IKD Co., Ltd. (600933.SH), and Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co., Ltd. (002126.SZ), etc.
3) Complete vehicles: Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd. (600418.SH), BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ), Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (00175), Li Auto Inc. (09863), Great Wall Motor Company Limited (02333), NIO Inc. (09866), etc.
Risk warning: Slow progress in smart driving; policy implementation delays; intensified competition in the smart driving industry.