Jingu Financial News | The pacific Securities released a research report indicating that akeso (09926) disclosed the key results of the HARMONi-2 study at the World Lung Cancer Congress (WCLC), which showed that ephrux compared to pembrolizumab achieved the longest median PFS to date in first-line treatment of patients with PD-L1 positive advanced NSCLC. The median PFS for the ephrux group reached 11.14 months, with the data still immature; the median PFS for the pembrolizumab group was 5.8 months, with mature data. The PFSK-M curves of the two groups separated very quickly, with a particularly obvious degree, with PFSHR at 0.51, indicating that ephrux treatment significantly reduces the risk of disease progression or death by 49% in the ITT population, demonstrating a substantial efficacy advantage.
The report continues to state that the approval of cardurib in first-line indications for gastric cancer is expected to reshape the treatment landscape for gastric cancer. In September 2024, the NMPA approved cardurib combined with fluoropyrimidine and platinum-based chemotherapy for first-line treatment in patients with locally advanced unresectable or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction (G/GEJ) adenocarcinoma based on the results of the COMPASSION-15 study, filling the current gap in efficacy of PD-1/L1 monoclonal antibodies in populations with low or negative PD-L1 expression and providing a more comprehensive and effective immunotherapy option for advanced gastric cancer patients, potentially further optimizing the current clinical treatment pattern for advanced gastric cancer.
The report estimates that the company's revenues for 2024/2025/2026 will be 2.678/4.333/6.978 billion yuan; net income attributable to the parent will be -0.305/0.487/1.419 billion yuan respectively. The company's core products are successfully commercialized, expected to achieve profitability in 2025. Based on the DCF valuation model, referencing the 10-year Treasury yield, the average return in the biological product sector, with a WACC of 8.28% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.00%, the reasonable market cap is estimated to be 75.415 billion HKD, corresponding to a target stock price of 84.15 HKD. This is the first coverage with a 'buy' rating.
