According to the Securities Times app, GTJA released research reports stating that the newly appointed US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed the "333 Plan", the implementation of which will create conditions for the Fed to start an "appropriate easing cycle". After the election, the "Trump trade" regained momentum after a brief adjustment, and the continued sharp decline of the euro also boosted the strength of the US dollar. It is reported that chip giant NVIDIA (NVDA US) released its third-quarter financial report last week, with performance exceeding market expectations. To some extent, investing in NVIDIA is investing in the prospects of the US economy and the profit expectations of the entire US stock market. After the financial report was released, the US stock market regained its upward momentum.

GTJA's main opinions include:

Trump nominated macro hedge fund giant Scott Bessent as the US Treasury Secretary.

He recently proposed the eye-catching "333 Plan": to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028, achieve 3% GDP growth by relaxing regulations, increase daily production by 3 million barrels or an equivalent amount of energy, and implementing this plan will create conditions for the Fed to start an "appropriate easing cycle.

From a macro perspective, he believes that the US fiscal deficit is too high and tends to significantly cut government spending, while also supporting a strong US dollar and digital currencies; some have pointed out that Bessent believes the yen is too weak and predicts a 40% appreciation in the yen. When these macro views are put together, they actually point out some interesting directions, namely that the United States can gradually reduce the fiscal deficit by improving government and economic efficiency, thereby supporting the strong position of the US dollar.

In terms of data, the November US PMI data continues to show a diverging trend. The manufacturing PMI recorded 48.8, while continuing a mild contraction trend, the service PMI broke through the 55 level for several consecutive months, recording 57, the highest value since May 2022.

After the election, the "Trump trade" regained momentum after a brief adjustment.

The US dollar index saw three consecutive rises in the second half of last week, closing at 107.5, the highest level since the end of 2022. The recent strength of the US dollar index is closely related to the market's adjustment of the December rate cut expectations for the Federal Reserve. CME's FedWatch data shows that the market's expectation of pausing rate cuts exceeds 47%, compared to 17% last week.

The marginal changes in rate cut expectations directly reflect the market's assessment of the effectiveness of future US government policies. With the successive appointments of Trump officials and the recent cautious attitude of Fed officials towards the easing path of future monetary policy, concerns of 're-inflation' are slowly growing.

The sharp decline in the euro is also a key factor driving the strength of the US dollar, which is not unrelated to the further deterioration of the European fundamentals.

Slightly earlier than the US, Eurozone's PMI data for November was all below market expectations, further probing below the boom-bust line. The Eurozone's November manufacturing PMI and services PMI recorded 45.2 and 49.2 respectively, lower than the market's expected 46.0 and 51.6. The continued deterioration of economic data has dragged down the euro. Since the conclusion of the US election, the euro has cumulatively fallen by nearly 5%. The European Central Bank has already lowered the policy rate by 75 basis points to 3.25% this year. After the weak PMI data was released, the market is betting on a 50 basis point rate cut by the ECB in December and expects a further 150 basis point cut next year.

Last week, chip giant NVIDIA (NVDA US) released its third-quarter financial report.

Although its performance exceeded market expectations and revenue continued to hit a record high for a single quarter, it is puzzling that the company's stock price fluctuated after the performance announcement. Taking into account the trend of NVIDIA's stock price before the performance announcement, the firm is more inclined to believe that investors had already bet on NVIDIA's performance surpassing expectations again, leading to some short-term investors cashing out after the performance announcement.

On a deeper level, NVIDIA's stock performance reflects the outlook of the US economy.

NVIDIA has the highest weighting in the US large-cap market, guiding the major stock indices. Seven leading technology companies, including NVIDIA, have driven a 24% increase in the large cap market this year. In-depth view, AI technology is widely used in industries such as production, services, autonomous driving, medical care, education, enterprise operation, etc., improving the production efficiency of various sectors in the economy and promoting economic growth.

In the field of AI chips, Nvidia's chips occupy the vast majority of the market, with its chips even becoming the "hard currency" of technological development. To some extent, investing in Nvidia is investing in the future of the American economy and the profit expectations of the entire US stock market. Therefore, after the financial report was released, the US stock market regained upward momentum, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a new historical high for three consecutive days, and the S&P 500 also rising for 5 consecutive days. Looking at the entire week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all recorded gains of approximately 1.7%, 1.7%, and 2.0%, respectively.