#MiddleEastCrisis #GoldTechnical analysis#24K99 News On Monday (November 25th) during the Asian session, spot gold suddenly plunged significantly in the short term, with the price just falling below $2700 per ounce, dropping more than $17 within the day.
(Source: 24K99) 15-minute chart for spot gold.
After the start of trading in the Asian session on Monday, the gold market experienced intense volatility, dropping to a low of $2691.68 per ounce at one point, then soaring to $2721.38 per ounce.
Now, gold prices have once again fallen. A significant ceasefire message has just come from the Middle East, which has impacted the safe-haven bids for gold.
According to the latest report from the well-known American website Axios, two senior Israeli officials and two American officials have informed Axios that Israel and Lebanon are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
(Screenshot Source: Axios)
During more than a year of fighting, over 3,500 Lebanese people have died, with over 0.015 million injured. The agreement will also allow hundreds of thousands of civilians from both sides of the border to gradually return to their homes.
According to reports, the ceasefire agreement draft includes a 60-day transitional period, during which the Israeli military will withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army will deploy in areas near the border, and Hezbollah will move heavy weapons north of the Litani River.
The draft agreement includes a supervisory committee led by the USA, responsible for monitoring the implementation of the agreement and handling violations.
Israeli and American officials said that the USA has agreed to provide Israel with a guarantee, including support for Israeli military action against imminent threats from Lebanese territory, as well as taking action to disrupt Hezbollah's military presence near the border or smuggling heavy weapons.
According to the agreement, if the Lebanese military does not address this threat, Israel will take such actions after consultation with the USA.
The conflict began when Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel on October 8, 2023, and significantly escalated after Israel launched a ground invasion into Lebanon on October 1, 2024.
Although about 140 Israeli soldiers and civilians were killed, most of the casualties occurred on the Lebanese border side.
US and Israeli officials said that when the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant last Thursday, the deal was close to completion.
Due to the sudden escalation of the Russia-Ukraine tension, the price of gold surged nearly 6% last week, marking the best single-week performance since March 2023, when a wave of bank crises swept global markets, boosting demand for safer assets.
FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia had previously pointed out that if the gold price plunges below $2700 per ounce, it may start trading in the range of $2650-2700 per ounce. If gold further drops and bears break the low of the volatility on November 14th at $2536 per ounce, then the price may fall to $2500 per ounce.
FXDailyReport analyst Nicholas Kitonyi stated that gold bears will look to take profits when the price falls back to around $2665 per ounce or lower at $2622 per ounce.
FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer pointed out that investors will continue to closely monitor the developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict this week. A easing of geopolitical tensions may trigger a significant downward correction in the price of gold.
Sengezer pointed out, the first trading day for the price of goldResistancePossibly located in the range of $2680-2670 per ounce, this area is where the 20-day moving average, 50-day moving average, and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend since June are located. Once the above range is breached, the next support for the gold price will be at $2600 per ounce (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $2560 per ounce (100-day moving average).
On the upside, Sengezer stated that the first obstacle for the gold price is at $2750 per ounce. Once this level is surpassed, the next resistance levels for the gold price are at $2790 per ounce and $2800 per ounce.
At 09:39 Beijing time, spot gold was reported at $2698.42 per ounce.
