Everbright Securities raised Kuaishou's adjusted net income forecast for 2024 to 17.6 billion yuan.
According to the Zhito Finance APP, Everbright Securities released a research report stating that it maintains a "buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024), considering that the profit side for Q3 2024 exceeded expectations, and slightly raised the adjusted net income forecast for 2024 to 17.6 billion yuan (up 1.9% from the last forecast). The company's ecosystem remains healthy, with growth potential in overseas & local lifestyle businesses, and the target price remains unchanged at 60.3 HKD. Kuaishou Technology achieved total revenue of 31.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, up 11.4% year-on-year (versus consensus expectation of +11.1% year-on-year); adjusted net income was 3.95 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations (versus consensus expectation of 3.91 billion yuan).
The report stated that the company's DAU growth outperformed expectations, and the accumulation of large models is expected to be validated: 1) The average DAU and MAU for Q3 2024 were 0.408 billion and 0.71 billion respectively (year-on-year +5.4%/+4.3%). 2) User scale continues to expand while achieving high-quality growth and content upgrades for users. Traffic remains high, with Kuaishou’s average daily usage time per DAU reaching 132.2 minutes (year-on-year +1.8%), and community interaction enhancing user retention. 3) The application of large models continues to deepen. The latest Keling AI 1.5 version achieved all-round improvements with clarity reaching 1080p; Kuaishou's monthly active users in search exceeded 0.5 billion, and daily search peak exceeded 0.8 billion.
In terms of commercialization, the momentum of external circulation advertising continues to be released, and e-commerce growth is in line with expectations: 1) Online marketing: Kuaishou's external circulation marketing services in Q3 2024 saw growth amplified further with the empowerment of AI tools, and in-app ads like short dramas expanded the consumer user base. This institution expects that external circulation will remain the main driver, while internal circulation will achieve steady growth alongside the increase in e-commerce GMV. 2) E-commerce: E-commerce revenue continues to grow steadily, with GMV growth meeting expectations. Q3 2024 Kuaishou's e-commerce GMV reached 334.2 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year, with the general shelf e-commerce GMV in Q3 2024 growing in line with the sse mega-cap index, accounting for 27% of total GMV. 3) Live streaming rewards: The trend of professionalization and institutionalization further strengthens, with the number of signed guild organizations increasing by over 40% year-on-year by the end of Q3 2024, and the number of signed guild anchors increasing by over 60% year-on-year.