Hot news

• Official announcement! Trump nominates Bensent as the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury.

After a long detour, Trump ultimately chose the initially most popular candidate for U.S. Secretary of the Treasury—Scott Bensent, a well-known hedge fund manager and "Soros disciple." Last Friday local time, Trump officially stated that he would nominate Bensent, the founder of macro hedge fund Key Square, as the next U.S. Secretary of the Treasury.

• Welcome the strongest seasonal increase of the year! Goldman Sachs fund flow expert: the S&P 500 index will rise to 7000 points.

Experts researching fund flows at Goldman Sachs recently stated that the U.S. stock market is entering its best seasonal period of the year. This week typically marks the beginning of the year-end rebound, including some of the year's best trading days until Thanksgiving. Additionally, over a month ago, he predicted that the S&P 500 index would far exceed 6000 points by the end of this year, and last Friday, his most optimistic expectation was raised again, saying the index could reach 7000 points, noting, "I placed an order for an SPX 7K cap." SPX 7K represents the S&P index rising to 7000 points.

• The Federal Reserve will start a framework review next year, focusing not on the 2% inflation target; Powell welcomes new perspectives and critical feedback.

On November 22, last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve released more details about the framework review plan starting in January next year. The latest framework review will focus on two main areas: one is to review the "Statement on Long-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy" passed by the Federal Reserve in August 2020, which outlines the monetary policy guidelines, and the second is to explore the Federal Reserve's policy communication tools.

• The Federal Reserve: The sustainability of usa debt has risen to the number one financial stability risk, inflation threats are declining, on par with the trade war.

According to the Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report, the Fed's survey found that more than half of the financial professionals interviewed believe that government debt sustainability is a significant financial stability risk for the coming year, an increase of 14 percentage points compared to the last survey. The proportion of those who consider persistent inflation as a prominent risk has halved to 33%; respondents also specifically mentioned global trade risks, which were not included in the list of significant risks in the last report.

• The PMI for the USA in November reached its fastest pace since April 2022 as factories ramp up imports of raw materials.

On November 22, last Thursday, data released by S&P Global showed that the expansion rate of business activity in the USA in November was the fastest since April 2022, with bright demand prospects expected under the upcoming policies of the new Trump administration. Although November was mainly driven by faster growth in service sector activities, manufacturers are optimistic about production for the next year, the most optimistic since April 2022.

• US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, setting a new record high.

According to the latest report released by the American independent research organization, the Federal Budget Accountability Committee, the total national debt of the USA has exceeded $36 trillion this week, reaching a record high. Since the end of July this year, the total national debt has risen from $35 trillion to $36 trillion in just over three months.

• The US election is settled, consumer confidence is lower than expected, long-term inflation expectations exceed the range's upper limit.

Data released last Friday shows that with the conclusion of the U.S. election, consumer confidence was below expectations and lower than the preliminary reading before the election results were announced, reflecting a serious divide in outlook on the U.S. economy between Republicans and Democrats following Trump's victory. In addition, long-term inflation expectations have risen to a cyclical high. The final consumer confidence index for the University of Michigan in November stood at 71.8, which, although still the highest level since April this year, significantly missed expectations of 73.9 and was revised down from an initial value of 73.

• Goldman Sachs 2025 outlook for commodity market: being long gold is the 'Top Trade', and oil & gas prices may have a 'temporary upward trend'

Analysts at Goldman Sachs recently released a report stating that investors can avoid tail risk through selective investments in commodities. During periods of unexpectedly high inflation, commodities provide strong returns, while the real returns on stocks and bonds are negative. Gold prices are expected to rise to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, driven by demand for central bank gold reserves, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and market risk aversion. Brent crude prices face pressure from OPEC+ production increases and Trump's tariffs, projected to stay in the range of $70-85 per barrel in 2025.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

• The three major indexes collectively rose, with the Dow hitting a historic high and Tesla gaining nearly 4%.

Last Friday, the three major indexes collectively rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.97%, reaching a historic high; the S&P 500 Index rose 0.35%, marking its fifth consecutive trading day of increases. The Nasdaq Index gained 0.16%.

Major technology stocks had mixed performance, with Tesla rising 3.80%, Microsoft up 1.00%, Apple gaining 0.59%, while Amazon fell 0.64%, Meta dropped 0.70%, Google declined 1.71%, and Nvidia was down 3.22%.

Most china concept stocks fell, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 1.37%. NIO rose 2.98%, Li Auto fell 1.42%, JD.com dropped 1.98%, Alibaba declined 2.86%, Xpeng fell 3.09%, and PDD Holdings dropped 3.86%.

• Jensen Huang: "Very close" to general-purpose robots, with three types of robots capable of mass production, namely "autos, drones, and humanoid robots."

On November 23, at the PhD degree awarding ceremony held on Saturday at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Jensen Huang stated,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$In ten years, the marginal cost of computing will be reduced by a million times; thanks to generative AI, information can be freely transferred between different modes and fields, solving interdisciplinary problems; it will take a few more years to achieve AI output of the "best answer"; similar to Moore's Law, scale law is also driving the development of AI.

• Tesla has asked a judge to dismiss a lawsuit failure, accused of concealing the "phantom braking" safety defect.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The company failed to convince a US judge to dismiss a consumer lawsuit that alleged Tesla did not warn buyers regarding the so-called defect, which could cause cars to brake automatically without actual collision risk. Last Friday, a Chicago US district judge ruled the case to be reasonable but indicated that the proposed class action may proceed because Tesla concealed the "phantom braking" safety defect from potential buyers.

• Another investment of 4 billion usd! Amazon has a total investment of 8 billion binding "OpenAI's strongest competitor."

Last Friday, the technology giants in the USA$Amazon (AMZN.US)$The company announced on its official website that it has deepened its strategic cooperation with the American AI startup Anthropic. Anthropic stated that Amazon's latest decision will bring its total investment in Anthropic to 8 billion dollars, and Amazon will also retain its position as a minority shareholder. Amazon said the two companies will continue to work closely together to enhance the capabilities of Trainium's hardware and software.

• The EU has concluded its antitrust investigation into Apple's Apple Books, as the relevant complaint has been withdrawn.

According to reports, the EU has concluded its$Apple (AAPL.US)$antitrust investigation into e-books but has made no conclusions. The EU stated that the investigation was terminated because the relevant complaint was withdrawn, but in fact, this complaint may "no longer have practical significance." The statement said: "Due to one e-book and audiobook distributor withdrawing its complaint against Apple, the commission has decided to close the antitrust investigation regarding e-book/audiobook applications." However, the European Commission also emphasized that this does not mean Apple's behavior is completely in compliance with competition law.

• Eli Lilly's new pharmaceutical "Trellopide" has submitted its fourth application for market approval in China.

The latest announcement from the National Medical Products Administration's drug review center (CDE) website.$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$The new indication application for the heavyweight drug GIP/GLP-1 receptor dual agonist teriparatide injection has been accepted, with specific indications not yet disclosed. According to the CDE official website, this is the fourth market application for teriparatide submitted in china.

• The surge in Tesla's stock price has propelled Musk's personal wealth to a historic high.

Thanks to$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Due to the significant recent increase in stock prices, the world's richest man Elon Musk's fortune has soared, with his personal net worth reaching a historic high. It should be noted that there is a slight discrepancy in the current mainstream wealth statistics. According to Forbes, Musk's current personal net worth has reached 321.7 billion usd, while the Bloomberg Billionaires Index reports it as 347.8 billion usd.

Top 20 in transaction volume

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

• Good news for the platform economy! The State Council proposed to increase policy support.

Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting to discuss promoting the healthy development of the platform economy. The meeting pointed out that developing the platform economy is related to expanding domestic demand, stabilizing employment, and benefiting people's livelihoods, as well as empowering the real economy and developing new quality productivity. There is a need to further strengthen overall guidance for the healthy development of the platform economy and increase policy support.

• Northbound capital rushes to buy Sunny Optical for over 0.3 billion HKD, buys CNOOC for over 0.2 billion HKD, and sells Tencent for over 0.4 billion HKD.

On November 22, southbound funds net purchased Hong Kong stocks for 2.566 billion HKD.

$SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK)$、$CNOOC (00883.HK)$、$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$Net purchases of 0.316 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.231 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.199 billion Hong Kong dollars were made respectively.

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$、$BABA-W (09988.HK)$、$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Net sell-offs were 0.432 billion HKD, 0.331 billion HKD, and 0.31 billion HKD respectively.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index; ZOOM

On Monday, economic data regarding the Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index will be released.

Regarding financial reports,$Zoom Video Communications (ZM.US)$will release its financial report in post-market trading.

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"- Charlie Munger"

Editor/ping