According to a report released by Goldman Sachs last week, despite supply shortages and geopolitical uncertainties expected in 2024, the average price of Brent crude oil is projected to be around $80 per barrel this year, and a surplus of 0.4 million barrels per day is anticipated in 2025.

Goldman Sachs stated: "Our base forecast is that the price of Brent crude oil will remain in the range of $70 to $85, with high idle capacity limiting price increases, while the price elasticity of OPEC and shale oil supply will limit price decreases."

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs warned that the risk of a price breakout is increasing. Oil prices rose last Friday, with Brent crude futures prices reaching $74.37 per barrel, due to concerns that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could escalate further and trigger worries about tight crude oil supplies. Additionally, the firm believes that in the short term, there is an upward risk for Brent crude oil prices; if Iran faces stricter sanctions, the global crude oil supply will be reduced by 1 million barrels per day, which could lead to Brent crude prices rising to around $80 per barrel by the first half of 2025.

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs indicated that due to high idle capacity, there is a downside risk for oil prices in the medium term. The firm added: "Although there is sufficient idle capacity in crude oil production, we expect the refining business to remain quite tight, and refining margins for rbob gasoline and diesel are expected to rebound further."

Goldman Sachs still believes that in 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil will be $76 per barrel; by 2026, due to a surplus of 0.9 million barrels per day, the average price will drop to $71 per barrel. The firm expects that with GDP growth, the continuous increase in total energy demand, and the ongoing challenges of decarbonizing aviation and petrochemical products will drive oil demand to continue growing over the next decade.

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