Atkore Inc. (NYSE:ATKR) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Atkore reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$3.2b and statutory earnings per share of US$12.69, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the six analysts covering Atkore provided consensus estimates of US$2.99b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a noticeable 6.6% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 45% to US$7.36 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.04b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.62 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.
The average price target fell 17% to US$101, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Atkore, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$115 and the most bearish at US$84.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.6% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Atkore is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Atkore. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Atkore's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Atkore's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Atkore. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Atkore going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Atkore you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
