Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:ACGL) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 6.6x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 20x and even P/E's above 36x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Arch Capital Group has been doing relatively well. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this strong earnings performance might be less impressive moving forward. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
How Is Arch Capital Group's Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Arch Capital Group would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 92%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 199% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 34% as estimated by the eleven analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
With this information, we are not surprised that Arch Capital Group is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Final Word
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that Arch Capital Group maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Arch Capital Group you should know about.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Arch Capital Group. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
