成本持续改善，经营战略调整，关注后续市占率回升情况。根据公司公告，三季度公司单票分拨成本为0.25 元/票，同比下降0.02 元；单票运输成本为0.39 元/票，同比下降0.04元，核心成本降幅达到0.06 元。公司运营效益持续释放，转运设施升级与标准化改革带动成本进一步优化。同时公司公告与业绩会指出，下阶段工作将回归市场份额优先战略，包括梳理网络政策、赋予网点确定性与信心、加速扩大规模优势等，并保障盈利水平的合理稳健性，关注后续产粮区价格情况与公司市占率变化。Key points of investment:
Zhongtong Express released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 10.675 billion yuan, up 17.6% year on year; adjusted net profit was 2.39 billion yuan, up 2.0% year on year. The off-season price competition in the third quarter was relatively intense, and combined with the company's strategic adjustments, the performance was slightly lower than expected.
The growth rate was under pressure, and the performance of spare parts was excellent, which led to a year-on-year increase in unit prices. The 24Q3 company completed 8.723 billion units of business, up 15.9% year on year, lower than the industry (20.1%), mainly due to the company abandoning some low price items; the unit price side increased 2.6% year on year, mainly due to the increase in the share of high customer unit price packages. In particular, the direct customer business revenue grew rapidly. Since pioneering the spare parts business this year, the company has fully connected with e-commerce platforms, penetrated reverse logistics cooperation, and obtained continuous growth from high-quality customers with high-quality performance and service indicators. (Data from the National Post Office and company announcements)
Costs continue to improve, business strategies are adjusted, and attention is paid to subsequent market share recovery. According to the company's announcement, the company's single ticket distribution cost for the third quarter was 0.25 yuan/ticket, down 0.02 yuan year on year; single ticket transportation cost was 0.39 yuan/ticket, down 0.04 yuan year on year, and the core cost drop reached 0.06 yuan. The company's operating efficiency continues to be released, and the upgrading of transit facilities and standardization reforms have led to further cost optimization. At the same time, the company's announcement and results conference pointed out that the next stage of work will return to the market share priority strategy, including sorting out network policies, giving outlets certainty and confidence, speeding up scale expansion, etc., and ensuring the reasonable and steady level of profit levels, and paying attention to subsequent changes in the price situation in grain-producing regions and the company's market share.
The profit forecast was lowered and the “buy” rating was maintained. In line with the company's 24-year volume guidelines and next year's strategic outlook, we lowered the company's 2024 volume growth rate and single ticket revenue assumptions. At the same time, the company vigorously developed KA customers, and revenue and costs increased year-on-year, so we raised the company's KA customer cost assumption. Based on the above assumptions, we lowered the company's 24-26 profit forecast. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024-2026 was 10.104/11.067/12.686 billion yuan (the original 24-26E forecast was 10.873/13.09/15.669 billion yuan), an increase of 12%/10%/15% year-on-year, and the corresponding PE is 11x/10x/9x, respectively. The main business of Shentong Express, Yuantong Express, and SF Express Holdings are all in the express delivery industry. Comparable to Zhongtong Express, the average valuation of comparable companies in 24 years is 15x (November 22). Compared with the average valuation of Zhongtong Express, there is still plenty of room to compare the average valuation of comparable companies, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Part volume growth rate is lower than expected; parts business development is hampered; price fluctuations are intensifying.