According to the Zhito Finance APP, the secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, stated that in October 2024, china's auto exports reached 0.59 million units, with an 11% growth year-on-year compared to October 2023, and a 3% decrease compared to the previous month, showing stable year-on-year and month-on-month trends; from January to October, china's auto exports totaled 5.28 million units, with an export growth rate of 25%. In October 2024, the export volume of electric vehicles was 0.2 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1% and a month-on-month growth rate of 10%; from January to October 2024, the cumulative export volume of electric vehicles was 1.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15%.

The top ten countries for china's total auto exports in October 2024 are: Russia 107,353 units, Mexico 33,129 units, Saudi Arabia 31,856 units, UAE 30,796 units, Belgium 29,349 units, Israel 23,251 units, Australia 16,556 units, united kingdom 16,189 units, Philippines 15,425 units, Chile 12,904 units; the top five countries for the increase in china's auto exports in October are: UAE 17,803 units, Saudi Arabia 17,393 units, Israel 15,562 units, Russia 10,402 units, Belgium 7,876 units. The decrease in Russia compared to September was significant, at 0.037 million units.

The top ten countries for total vehicle exports from January to October 2024 are: Russia 957,304 units, Mexico 386,545 units, UAE 261,615 units, Belgium 246,896 units, Brazil 217,591 units, Saudi Arabia 216,945 units, united kingdom 166,926 units, Australia 149,727 units, Philippines 138,131 units, Turkey 114,517 units; the top five countries for the increase in china's auto exports from January to October are: Russia 221,071 units, Brazil 140,779 units, UAE 138,796 units, Belgium 57,222 units, Mexico 52,464 units. The contribution to the increase from the top five countries was 59%, with Russia making a significant contribution to exports. From January to October 2024, markets like Thailand, Australia, and the Netherlands saw a large decline; in October, markets like the Netherlands, Mexico, and Thailand performed relatively poorly, whereas Brazil and Russia became core markets for the increase.

The top ten countries for total exports of electric vehicles from china in October 2024 are: Belgium 28,509 units, Israel 20,832 units, united kingdom 11,127 units, Philippines 10,789 units, Thailand 10,006 units, Mexico 7,606 units, Australia 7,574 units, UAE 6,381 units, Turkey 6,369 units, Indonesia 6,148 units; the top five countries for the year-on-year increase in electric vehicle exports in October compared to October 2023 are: Israel 13,187 units, Belgium 9,844 units, Indonesia 5,745 units, Mexico 5,486 units, Tajikistan 2,456 units.

The top ten countries for total exports of electric vehicles from January to October 2024 are: Belgium 232,940 units, Brazil 145,104 units, united kingdom 106,915 units, Thailand 97,379 units, Philippines 94,138 units, Mexico 72,352 units, Australia 65,356 units, india 64,967 units, Israel 63,704 units, UAE 60,971 units; the top five countries for the increase in china's auto exports from January to October are: Brazil 102,829 units, Mexico 60,403 units, Belgium 58,379 units, Indonesia 36,764 units, UAE 32,975 units, with the top five countries contributing 105% to the increase, with Brazil making a significant contribution to exports.

In 2024, exports to Belgium, the united kingdom, and other european countries and to Brazil, Thailand, and other southeast asian countries are major block orders. Recently, markets like the Netherlands and Thailand have seen weak exports. Non-EU european countries and markets like Mexico, Thailand, and Turkey are performing relatively strong.

The driving forces behind export growth are external help, high quality, human effort, and geopolitical changes. First, external help -- the resilience of china's autos industry chain; second, high quality -- the increased contribution of new energy to exports; third, human effort -- domestic brand companies are working very hard; fourth, geopolitical changes -- the differentiated development of china's exports.

The export of china's electric vehicles to developed markets is showing a high-quality development trend, mainly exporting to western europe and southeast asia markets. In recent years, developed countries like belgium, spain, slovenia, and the united kingdom in western and southern europe have continued to be highlights of exports, with a slight decline in october, while exports to countries in the americas such as brazil have strengthened this year. Domestic brands like saic passenger vehicle and byd have shown relatively strong performance in new energy models. Although electric vehicle exports to europe have temporarily slowed in october, there is hope that with gradual adaptation to the impact of european anti-subsidy measures, china's exports to europe will rebound.

I. Overall trends in China's automobile exports

1. Historical Trend of Automobile Exports

After experiencing a platform period of millions of units in China's automobile exports, breakthroughs finally began in 2021. Following a sharp decline from 2013 to 2016 during the global economic downturn, export growth stabilized and improved from 2017 to 2020, maintaining an annual export volume level of around 1 million units. In 2020, exports reached 1.08 million units, a 13% decrease year-on-year, entering a period of high growth thereafter.

Due to the impact of the global pandemic and tesla's domestic production, china's auto exports achieved significant breakthroughs in sales and unit prices from 2021 to 2023. In 2023, china's auto exports reached 5.22 million units, with a continuous strong growth rate of 57%. From january to october 2024, china's auto exports reached 5.28 million units, a year-on-year growth of 25%. As long as there is a stable market environment internationally, there is still enormous room for the future development of china's auto exports.

In 2020, the annual sales volume reached 1.085 million units, a 13.1% year-on-year decrease. In 2021, the export market sales volume reached 2.187 million units, a 102% year-on-year increase.

In 2022, the export market sales volume reached 3.4 million units, a 55% year-on-year increase, mainly due to insufficient overseas supply and significantly enhanced export competitiveness of Chinese auto companies. In 2023, China's autos achieved an export of 5.22 million units, with a continuously strong export growth rate of 54%, showing outstanding performance. Despite the gradual recovery of domestic auto sales, the export market performance remains strong. China's export growth has been significant in the last two years under the international epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

2024年10月中国汽车实现出口0.59 million台，同比2023年10月增速11%、环比上月下降3%，同、环比走势平稳;1-10月中国汽车实现出口5.28 million台，出口增速25%。今年的主要动力仍是中国产品竞争力提升和全球南方国家市场的小幅增长及俄乌危机下的俄罗斯市场的国际品牌全面被中国车替代，尤其是中国的燃油车出口竞争力提升带来的出口增大。

2. Monthly Trend of Vehicle Exports

Looking at the monthly trends, exports in recent years still exhibit seasonal characteristics, showing high performance in the summer season compared to domestic trends. In 2022, the auto market started strong, but exports declined month-on-month from February to April due to the impact of the Shanghai epidemic, with a continuous increase from May to December. In 2023, exports continued to show strength, maintaining the sales volume of the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting a significant increase in the global competitiveness of China's auto industry.

2024年1-10月中国汽车出口基本符合前几年的逐步走强走势，1季度增速相对前三年的超高增速有所放缓，4-5月增速回升,6月偏弱，7月开始出口恢复增长，8月超强，9-10月放缓。今年1-2月的出口仅增长20%，3-5月增长30%以上，3季度汽车出口在近期外部环境复杂下反而走强。10月走势异常偏低。

3. Characteristics of the structure of automobile exports

Before 2020, exports were maintained at a million scale. In 2021, the total vehicle exports (including chassis) reached 2.19 million units, with a performance increase of 102%, which is quite good. The types of SUVs and other passenger vehicles performed well in exports between 2021 and 2022.

In 2023, automobile exports are comprehensive and strong, with strong gasoline vehicle exports. Passenger vehicles are the main force in exports, with a growth rate of 65%, among which the exports of four-wheel drive SUVs and minivans are good.

In 2024, the demand growth in the russian market is strong, and the export of passenger vehicles shows strong resilience. Exports of trucks, buses, and special vehicles have shown some weakness. The export growth of passenger vehicles in October has a weak increase of 8%.

This year, customs truck exports increased by 16%. In contrast to the sluggish domestic truck market, the recent exports of various trucks have become differentiated, with good performance for heavy-duty and tractor trucks.

From a structural perspective, the export share of passenger vehicles continues to increase, while the share of trucks and buses has significantly decreased. The performance of several main models of passenger vehicles is relatively balanced, while the export of small cars has declined. The share of buses with fewer than 9 seats reached a maximum of 32% in 2024, and October reached 32%; the export of unnamed passenger vehicles in October ranked second among passenger vehicles, but decreased significantly year-on-year.

In October, truck performance was strong, with good growth in light trucks, while heavy truck exports showed a rebound. In buses, medium and large buses have recovered, while the export of light buses is slightly weaker.

4. Characteristics of export power structure

In 2024, the export growth rate of passenger vehicles has rebounded, with the performance from July to September better than the growth rate in the first half of the year, but it fell back in October. The export of pure electric passenger vehicles in October 2024 dropped to negative 11%, while plug-in hybrids and hybrid vehicles remained strong. From January to October, the export of hybrid passenger vehicles was very strong. This year, truck and bus exports have been sluggish, but the trends for diesel trucks and gasoline light buses are relatively strong, indicating a shift in growth dynamics.

II. Market Structure of Automobile Exports

1. Characteristics of export manufacturers in domestic regions

In October, Anhui replaced Shanghai as the national leader in passenger vehicle exports. The significance of Shanghai's export to China is extremely clear. In 2023, Shanghai exported 0.95 million vehicles, with passenger vehicles accounting for 0.855 million units. This is mainly due to the relatively outstanding performance of local companies in Shanghai, especially SAIC Motor and Tesla, both of which have relatively strong export volumes, while SAIC General's export performance remained stable. However, recently, Shanghai's exports have been unusually low, dropping to 0.68 million units, a decrease of 15% from January to October 2024, with a decline of 26% in October.

Anhui's export performance is relatively strong, mainly due to Chery and Jianghuai's relatively strong export performance. Shaanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu's automotive export contribution has increased significantly.

2. Analysis of regional export trends

From January to October 2024, the export of pure electric vehicles to Oceania and Europe has clearly slowed down, but the pure electric demand remains strong in other regions. The Red Sea crisis has not had a significant impact on exports from china, while EU policies have led to a slight decrease in china's new energy exports. However, October saw a strong growth in EU plug-in hybrids. The growth in October is currently the result of exploring markets in africa and the middle east.

In terms of sales, exports from 2017 to 2022 experienced a gradual recovery, primarily due to contributions from europe. The increase in the Russian market after 2022 is substantial, making it a core increment. In 2024, the proportion of exports to the EU has decreased, while exports to south and central america and the usa and canada have increased. Exports of new energy vehicles to japan and south korea in October have decreased to 58%. Recently, the market share in developed markets in europe and north america has declined, and the market performance in developed countries has decreased.

South America's new energy export performance fluctuates greatly. Export demand in poor and underdeveloped regions of the world is unstable, but is expected to gradually recover in the future.

3. National trend analysis of vehicle exports by country

In 2021, the average export price was 0.016 million USD, in 2022, the average car export price was 0.018 million USD, rising to 0.019 million USD in 2023, and this year's average export price is 0.019 million USD, almost flat compared to last year.

Due to major changes in the Russian market earlier, with other foreign investments exiting, China has increased its exports to Russia since 2023. Chinese car companies still perform well in Russia in 2024. Compared to last year, there were more exports to Belgium, but in the second quarter of this year, the European economy was sluggish, resulting in average export performance.

The automotive markets in Chile, Peru, and others saw a sharp decline in 2023, but this year experienced some recovery, while the Brazilian market exhibited significant volatility. Asia remains the market for Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh. Recently, the Mexican market has performed strongly and has not yet been affected by the tariff increases in Europe and the USA.

4. Trends in monthly changes in whole vehicle exports

In October 2024, the top 10 countries for China's automotive exports were: Russia 107,353 vehicles, Mexico 33,129 vehicles, Saudi Arabia 31,856 vehicles, UAE 30,796 vehicles, Belgium 29,349 vehicles, Israel 23,251 vehicles, Australia 16,556 vehicles, United Kingdom 16,189 vehicles, Philippines 15,425 vehicles, and Chile 12,904 vehicles; the top five countries for the increase in China's automotive exports in October were: UAE 17,803 vehicles, Saudi Arabia 17,393 vehicles, Israel 15,562 vehicles, Russia 10,402 vehicles, and Belgium 7,876 vehicles. The decrease in Russia from September was significant at 0.037 million units.

From January to October 2024, the top 10 countries for complete vehicle exports were: Russia 957,304 vehicles, Mexico 386,545 vehicles, UAE 261,615 vehicles, Belgium 246,896 vehicles, Brazil 217,591 vehicles, Saudi Arabia 216,945 vehicles, United Kingdom 166,926 vehicles, Australia 149,727 vehicles, Philippines 138,131 vehicles, and Turkey 114,517 vehicles; the top five countries for the increase in China's automotive exports from January to October were: Russia 221,071 vehicles, Brazil 140,779 vehicles, UAE 138,796 vehicles, Belgium 57,222 vehicles, and Mexico 52,464 vehicles. The increase from the top five countries accounted for 59% of the overall increase, with Russia contributing significantly to the exports. From January to October 2024, markets such as Thailand, Australia, and the Netherlands saw significant declines; in October, the Netherlands, Mexico, and Thailand performed relatively poorly, while Brazil and Russia became core markets for growth.

5. Analysis of changes in main export countries over the years

The results of the previous automotive export overseas base were not ideal. In 2020, automotive exports were mainly to countries such as Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Chile, with significant fluctuations. In 2022, the main markets for automotive exports came from Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Belgium, Australia, the Philippines, and Russia, with many exports to less developed countries. In 2023, the primary markets for automotive exports were Russia, Mexico, Belgium, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom, with strong trends in the US and European markets. Recently, relatively developed countries like Australia, Belgium, and the United Kingdom have shown improved performance. In October 2024, changes in the automotive export structure occurred; the top two markets, Russia and Mexico, remained unchanged, while exports to Belgium and Israel recovered, exports to Brazil severely declined, and exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia increased.

6. Analysis of changes in exports to Russia

In 2022, China exported 0.16 million vehicles to Russia, and in 2023, automotive exports to Russia reached 0.91 million units, a year-on-year increase of 459%. From January to October 2024, China exported 0.96 million vehicles to Russia, marking a 30% year-on-year growth. Since 2023, Russia has suddenly become China’s largest automotive export market, marking a significant change after 15 years for Chinese automotive exports. In 2008, Chinese independent brands performed well in the Russian market, but with the imposition of hefty tariffs on Chinese automobiles by Russia, many Chinese automotive enterprises exited the Russian market that year.

Recently, due to the withdrawal of automobile enterprises from other countries, chinese enterprises swiftly ensured the supply of vehicles to russia in 2023. Currently, chinese companies in russia should be temporarily safe, but caution is still needed.

In 2024, the export of electric vehicles from china to russia experienced severe fluctuations, with russia's import rules continuously adjusted based on supply and demand. After a surge in the export of products such as tractors and heavy trucks from china, exports declined, but recently, the scale of passenger vehicle exports has increased.

3. Trends in the export of new energy vehicles

1. Characteristics of annual exports of complete new energy vehicles

With the domestic electric vehicle market in china shifting from subsidy-driven to market-driven, the market competitiveness of chinese electric vehicles has significantly increased. The export of chinese electric vehicles experienced explosive growth starting in 2021 and then entered a period of sustained high growth. Although there have been policy disruptions from the european union regarding the export of new energy vehicles this year, from January to October 2024, the export of chinese new energy vehicles still reached 1.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15%.

In October 2024, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 0.2 million units, a year-on-year growth rate of 1% and a month-on-month growth rate of 10%; from January to October 2024, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15%.

Since June, the trend of new energy vehicle exports has been sluggish, with significant market pressure. However, there has not yet been a situation of negative growth.

2. Characteristics of the export structure of complete new energy vehicles

Before 2019, the export volume of electric vehicles was considerable, but the passenger vehicles were mainly micro low-speed electric cars, and the actual number of mainstream new energy models was not large. The export structure and quantity of new energy passenger vehicles have improved. From 2020 to 2022, new energy exports performed well, with a cumulative export of 1.73 million new energy vehicles in 2023. In October 2024, the export of new energy vehicles was 0.2 million units, an increase of 3% year-on-year; from January to October, the export of electric vehicles reached 1.72 million units, an increase of 19% year-on-year; from January to October 2024, the export of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.68 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20%, accounting for 98% of the total export volume of new energy vehicles. Recently, the export of new energy buses and special vehicles has decreased rapidly, with the export growth rate of new energy buses slowing sharply to 0.009 million units from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 10%.

Analysis of changes in new energy export regions.

With Tesla's entry into china, the export pattern of autos has changed. Shanghai has long been the leader, but with the temporary obstruction from the EU, exports from Shanghai have sharply shrunk. In 2024, the regions where new energy vehicle exports are relatively strong are guangdong, shaanxi, hebei, and jiangsu.

From the current export increment perspective, Shaanxi and Anhui have relatively large increments.

Characteristics of annual exports of new energy passenger vehicles by country.

2022年新能源汽车出口同比增长90%。新能源汽车出口主要是欧洲和亚洲两大市场。2023年中国新能源乘用车出口1.74 million台，达到55%的强势增长。2024年1-10月新能源汽车出口1.73 million台，增长19%，10月增3%的表现仍相对一般。今年中国对欧洲的比利时等国家的新能源车出口表现逐步改善，尤其10月对比利时出口同比增长，对巴西新能源下降明显。澳大利亚的新能源出口剧烈下降，近期中国对以色列的出口走势回升，以色列的中国车优势仍很强。

Analysis of the changes in the export volume of new energy vehicles in 2024

2024年10月中国新能源汽车出口总量的前10国家：比利时28509辆、以色列20832辆、英国11127辆、菲律宾10789辆、泰国10006辆、墨西哥7606辆、澳大利亚7574辆、阿联酋6381辆、土耳其6369辆、印度尼西亚6148辆;10月中国新能源汽车出口同比2023年10月增量的前五国家：以色列13187辆、比利时9844辆、印度尼西亚5745辆、墨西哥5486辆、塔吉克斯坦2456辆。2024年1-10月新能源汽车出口总量的前10国家：比利时232940辆、巴西145104辆、英国106915辆、泰国97379辆、菲律宾94138辆、墨西哥72352辆、澳大利亚65356辆、印度64967辆、以色列63704辆、阿联酋60971辆;1-10月中国汽车出口增量的前五国家：巴西102829辆、墨西哥60403辆、比利时58379辆、印度尼西亚36764辆、阿联酋32975辆，增量前5国家的增量贡献度为105%，其中巴西出口贡献巨大。2024年出口比利时、英国等欧洲国家和巴西、泰国等东南亚是几大主力方向。近期的荷兰、泰国等市场出口较弱。非欧盟的欧洲国家和墨西哥、泰国、土耳其等两类市场表现较强。

6. Analysis of the changes in the export of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles in 2024

Demand for plug-in hybrids in the former Soviet Union region is growing rapidly, while the demand for Chinese plug-in hybrid models in the European Union region has sharply decreased. Demand in Brazil has weakened recently.

This year, the Russian gasoline car market has made a huge contribution, and there are many gasoline car exports to the USA and Canada markets with distinct features.

7. Analysis of changes in the export of pure electric passenger vehicles in 2024.

In 2022, the proportion of new energy vehicles exported from china to the european union reached a peak of 46%. Recently, the proportion of pure electric exports to europe has declined, while exports to south america performed well, and exports of pure electric vehicles to southeast asia continued to strengthen.

IV. Trends in the export of passenger vehicles by category

1. Passenger vehicles are exported according to displacement.

The export displacement of passenger vehicles mainly falls within the range of 1 to 1.5 liters, which is also the comprehensive advantage of independently produced passenger vehicles in china. Recently, there has been rapid growth in the export of 1.5 to 2-liter models, indicating that countries like russia have a greater demand for china's high-end and high-priced models. Additionally, the product grade differentiation of electric vehicle models has improved significantly for high-end electric vehicle exports, while entry-level plug-in hybrids have seen good growth in exports.

2. Characteristics of the export structure of passenger vehicles.

From January to October 2024, the export performance of chinese rbob gasoline passenger vehicles was strong in countries like russia, the united arab emirates, the usa, and saudi arabia. The main markets experiencing a decline in 2024 are mexico, australia, uzbekistan, and ecuador.

From January to October 2024, the main growth in the export of pure electric passenger vehicles from china was to countries like belgium, brazil, indonesia, and the united arab emirates; declining markets included thailand, spain, the netherlands, france, and australia.

In 2024, the increase in plug-in hybrid vehicles mainly comes from markets like brazil and mexico, as well as central asia; however, the declining markets for plug-in hybrids are belgium, france, and japan.

V. Trends in Truck Export Classifications

1. Truck exports

In recent years, the export growth rate of the truck market has not been strong, and the proportion of the market share in the export of autos has been continuously shrinking slightly.

The main force in the truck market is for gasoline and diesel trucks below 5 tons, while there is also strong demand for diesel heavy-duty trucks above 20 tons.

2. Characteristics of changes in the truck export market

The overall performance of the truck export market's top players is stable. In 2024, the main export markets such as russia, mexico, and vietnam are performing well. Truck exports to markets like russia, united kingdom, and australia have declined. Recently, the markets in mexico and saudi arabia have shown significant strength.

In 2024, the export market for new energy pure electric trucks is performing steadily in the top few positions, with significant exports to mexico, south korea, thailand, and others; however, it is generally not a mainstream product. The export market for new energy trucks to europe is performing poorly and has shown a continuous decline.

VI. Trends in classified bus exports

1. Overall export of passenger vehicles

Recently, there has been a certain decline in global bus demand, leading to continuous shrinkage in china's bus exports over the past two years, dropping from 0.064 million units in 2019 to 0.037 million units in 2021. Since 2023, global demand has recovered, and china's bus exports have increased to 0.071 million units in 2023. In the period from January to October 2024, the exports reached 0.065 million units, an increase of 13%. The growth of pure electric bus exports in 2024 is at a poor 5%, while the export of rbob gasoline buses has increased significantly, but diesel bus exports have shrunk.

2. Characteristics of changes in the bus export market

China's bus export market is relatively scattered, primarily consisting of underdeveloped countries, making the market complex and difficult to engage in organized and sustained exports. This year, there is high demand from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Southeast Asian countries, with strong bus demand from countries like Saudi Arabia, Peru, and Vietnam. The export growth this year is from markets like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Vietnam, while there is a decline in developing countries, with significant decreases in markets like Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and South Africa.

The export market for new energy buses is relatively small and the data fluctuates greatly. This year, key regions such as Thailand and Chile performed poorly, while exports to Nepal, Vietnam, and japan are strong. Overseas demand for the electrification of Chinese buses is not very high.