2024 年前三季度，炭黑原料煤焦油价格受市场需求及经济形势影响,呈小幅震荡波动趋势,波幅小于去年。据百川盈孚，2024 年前三季度，炭黑市场均价8519 元/吨，同比-646 元/吨；炭黑价差为1694 元/吨，同比-313元/吨。尽管炭黑价格价差水平同比略有降低，但由于震荡幅度减小，盈利能力同比提升。2024 年前三季度，公司实现销售毛利率9.80%，同比上涨0.33 个pct，实现归母净利润1.12 亿元，同比+7.95%。单三季度，受益于上游煤焦油价格下降，炭黑价差回升，叠加山西项目试生产，产销量或有所提升。2024Q3，公司实现归母净利润0.50 亿元，同比+5.13%，环比+40.38%。期间费用方面，2024Q3 公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用分别为+488.2/+4495.30/+953.5/+951.5 万元， 同比-53.2/+361.6/+236.5/-586.0 万元，环比+41.9/+1714.1/+194.5/-68.4万元。Investment highlights:
Carbon black profits rebounded steadily, and the results for the first three quarters rose year-on-year
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 3.123 billion yuan, -2.32% year on year; realized net profit of 0.112 billion yuan, +7.95% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.109 billion yuan, +8.72% year over year; and net cash flow from operating activities was -0.182 billion yuan. Gross sales margin was 9.80%, up 0.33 pct year over year. Net sales margin was 3.25%, up 0.34 pct year over year.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the price of coal tar as a raw material for carbon black was affected by market demand and the economic situation, showing a slight fluctuation trend, less than last year. According to Baichuan Yingfu, in the first three quarters of 2024, the average carbon black market price was 8519 yuan/ton, -646 yuan/ton; the carbon black price difference was 1,694 yuan/ton, or -313 yuan/ton. Although the price spread level of carbon black decreased slightly year on year, profitability increased year on year due to the reduction in the magnitude of the fluctuation. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross sales margin of 9.80%, a year-on-year increase of 0.33 pct, and achieved net profit to mother of 0.112 billion yuan, or +7.95% year-on-year. In the third quarter of the single quarter, production and sales may have increased, benefiting from a drop in upstream coal tar prices and a recovery in carbon black price spreads, compounded by trial production in the Shanxi project. With 2024Q3, the company achieved net profit of 0.05 billion yuan, +5.13% year over year and +40.38% month over month. In terms of period expenses, 2024Q3's sales/management/R&D/finance expenses were +488.2/+4495.30/+953.5/+9.515 million yuan, year-on-year, -53.2/+361.6/+2.365/-5.86 million yuan, and +41.9/+1714.1/+1.945/-0.684 million yuan, respectively.
Significant scale advantage, better profit stability than peers
In 2023, the company's carbon black design production capacity was 0.42 million tons/year, producing and selling 0.486 and 0.493 million tons of carbon black respectively. According to statistics from the Carbon Black Branch of the China Rubber Association, the company's production and sales volume ranked third in the key domestic carbon black industry. Among them, in 2023, Black Cat Co., Ltd. and Jinneng Technology sold 0.942 million tons of carbon black and 0.647 million tons respectively. The carbon black industry is a traditional cyclical industry. The company has been deeply involved in the carbon black industry for nearly 30 years and has achieved better profitability stability than its peers. In 2020-2023, against the backdrop of large fluctuations in upstream coal tar prices, according to Wind, the company's ROE (weighted) remained stable at around 6.7%, and the gross margin of the carbon black sector fluctuated between 8% and 14%, and the stability was clearly superior to that of some peers.
Construction and acquisition go hand in hand, and actively expand carbon black production
The company is deeply involved in the carbon black business and is actively expanding production. As the company's carbon black production and sales gradually increased, the company built a new carbon black production capacity of 0.2 million tons in Shanxi, and entered the trial production stage in August 2024. Also, in November 2024, according to the company's announcement, the company plans to acquire 100% of the shares of China Oak (Chongqing) Carbon Black Co., Ltd. According to Weipu.com, China Oak (Chongqing) Carbon Black Co., Ltd. has a carbon black production capacity of 0.085 million tons. With the gradual release of new construction and acquisition capacity, the company's performance is expected to further increase.
The profit forecast and investment rating estimate that the company's 2024-2026 revenue is 4.242, 5.338, and 6.55 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother is 0.159, 0.203, and 0.297 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 18, 14, and 9 times, respectively. Considering the strong stability of profitability, and with the release of production capacity in fund-raising projects, performance is expected to be further released and covered for the first time, giving the company a “buy” rating.
Risks indicate the risk of falling demand for products due to macroeconomic fluctuations; a sharp drop in product prices; the risk that new production capacity expansion falls short of expectations; the risk of increased industry competition; and the risk of a sharp drop in raw materials.