Northwest Pipe Company (NASDAQ:NWPX) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 28% share price jump in the last month. The annual gain comes to 110% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Northwest Pipe's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.9x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 19x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Northwest Pipe has been doing relatively well. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
Does Growth Match The P/E?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Northwest Pipe's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 26%. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 103% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 5.4% per year as estimated by the three analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
In light of this, it's curious that Northwest Pipe's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Key Takeaway
Its shares have lifted substantially and now Northwest Pipe's P/E is also back up to the market median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that Northwest Pipe currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Northwest Pipe with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
You might be able to find a better investment than Northwest Pipe. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
