整体业绩符合预期，销量带动营收快速增长，Q3 单季营收首破600 亿创新高，新能源转型加速兑现。2024 前三季度实现营业收1676.8 亿元，同比+36.0%，销量149.0 万辆，同比+32.1%。单三季度来看，公司实现营收603.8 亿元，同比+20.5%，环比+9.8%。销量方面，Q3 实现销量53.4 万辆，同比+18.7%，环比+11.2%，吉利新能源（含吉利、领克、极氪）在Q3 销量达22.6 万辆，国内市场新能源渗透率超50%，稳居新能源品牌第一梯队。合并报表口径，对应单车收入11.3 万元，同比+1.5%，产品结构持续向好。Description of the event
Geely Auto announced its results for the third quarter of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, we achieved revenue of 167.68 billion yuan, +36.0% year on year, sales volume of 1.49 million vehicles, +32.1% year over year, and realized net profit to mother of 13.053 billion yuan, or +358.5% year over year.
Incident comments
Overall performance was in line with expectations. Sales led to rapid revenue growth. In Q3, revenue broke a record high of 60 billion for the first time in a single quarter, and the transformation of new energy sources accelerated. The first three quarters of 2024 achieved revenue of 167.68 billion yuan, +36.0% year over year, and sales volume of 1.49 million vehicles, +32.1% year over year. Looking at the third quarter of a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 60.38 billion yuan, +20.5% year-on-year and +9.8% month-on-month. In terms of sales volume, Q3 achieved sales of 0.534 million vehicles, +18.7% year-on-year, and +11.2% month-on-month. Geely New Energy (including Geely, Lynk & ZEEKR) sold 0.226 million vehicles in Q3. The penetration rate of new energy in the domestic market was over 50%, making it the first tier of new energy brands. The consolidated report caliber corresponds to bicycle revenue of 0.113 million yuan, +1.5% year-on-year, and the product structure continues to improve.
Benefiting from scale effects and product structure optimization results, profitability has been further improved. Net profit to mother was 13.053 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, +358.5% year on year, 2.46 billion yuan in Q3, +92.4% year on year, +78.4% month on month (not considering the impact of Q2 sales), and bicycle profit of 0.005 million yuan, a significant increase over the same period last year. Driven by product structure upgrades, increased sales scale, and cost reductions, gross margin increased month-on-month, with an apparent gross profit margin of 15.6% in Q3. Since the new standards require that guarantees related to warranty be adjusted from sales expenses to costs, the gross margin will be higher if restored. The cost ratio continues to be optimized under the scale effect. The Q3 sales expense ratio is 4.5%, -1.7 pct year over year, management fee ratio 5.8%, and -0.5 pct year over year. By brand, Q3 ZEEKR sold 0.055 million units, +51% year over month; total revenue was 18.36 billion, +31% year over year, and vehicle sales revenue reached a record high, exceeding 14.4 billion yuan, +42% year over month, +7% month on month; gross margin reached 15.7%, up 1.5 pct from month to month, a record high during the year.
ZEEKR integrates with Lynk & Co, optimizes the brand structure, and strengthens internal resource collaboration through strategic integration. Geely Group will transfer 11.3% of Geely ZEEKR shares to Geely Automobile. After the transaction is completed, Geely Automobile's shareholding ratio of ZEEKR will increase to about 62.8%.
At the same time, Geely Group announced that it will optimize the shareholding structure of its Linker and ZEEKR, and that GKrypton will hold 51% of Lynk & Co., Ltd.
Of these, 30% of the shares are planned to be purchased from Volvo Group, with a transaction consideration of 5.4 billion yuan. The remaining 49% of Lynk & Co shares will continue to be held by a wholly-owned subsidiary of Geely Automobile. The transaction is expected to be completed in Q1 2025. As a key measure to implement the strategic framework of the “Taizhou Declaration”, the optimization and integration of the equity structures of Jikrypton and Lynk & Co can effectively reduce related transactions, eliminate competition in the industry, and continue to promote deep integration and efficient collaboration of internal resources.
Empowered by the new platform, Geely Automobile is expected to open a new era of products. The GEA architecture supports the new vehicle cycle, and ZEEKR, Lynk & Co., and Galaxy are improving across the board. The new energy transformation of various brands is progressing smoothly, and the gradual highlighting of scale effects will bring upward flexibility to profits. The company's fuel vehicle base is stable, and joint ventures continue to open up new overseas space by innovating overseas models. Profits are highly elastic under the strong new cycle of vehicles, and current valuations are still low. Net profit due to mother for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 16 billion, 11.8 billion yuan, and 15.7 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to Hong Kong stock PE is 7.7X, 10.5X, and 7.9X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Economic recovery is weaker than expected;
2. Increased competition in the industry weakens corporate profits.
