强势新车周期下交付量大增，叠加大众服务收入带动，营收超百亿，毛利率达15.3%再创新高。汽车业务，三季度G9、G6、MONA M03 交付量大幅提升，汽车销售毛利率大幅提升。汽车业务收入88.0 亿元，同比+12.1%，交付量为4.65 万辆，同比+16.3%，单车收入21.7 万元，同比持平，环比-19.2%。从交付量结构来看，G6/MONA /G9/X9 分别交付1.76/1.05/0.83/0.43 万辆，占比分别达到37.8%/22.7%/17.8%/9.2%，MONA 大规模交付，销量结构变化导致单车收入环比下滑。汽车业务毛利率为8.6%，同比+14.7pct，环比+2.2pct，Q3 规模效应提升叠加成本下降，毛利率超预期。Description of the event
In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.1 billion yuan, +18.4% year-on-year, +24.5% month-on-month, net loss of 1.81 billion yuan, loss narrowing by 2.08 billion yuan year-on-year, non-GAAP net loss of 1.53 billion yuan, and loss narrowing by 1.26 billion yuan year-on-year.
Incident comments
Under the strong new vehicle cycle, deliveries increased dramatically, driven by mass service revenue. Revenue exceeded 10 billion dollars, and gross margin reached a new high of 15.3%. In the automotive business, G9, G6, and MONA M03 deliveries increased dramatically in the third quarter, and gross margin of automobile sales increased dramatically. Automobile business revenue was 8.8 billion yuan, +12.1% year over year, delivery volume was 0.0465 million vehicles, +16.3% year over year, and bicycle revenue was 0.217 million yuan, the same year on year, -19.2% month on month. Looking at the delivery structure, G6/MONA /G9/X9 delivered 1.76/0.0105/0.0083/0.0043 million vehicles respectively, accounting for 37.8%/22.7%/17.8%/9.2%, respectively. MONA delivered on a large scale, and changes in the sales structure led to a month-on-month decline in bicycle revenue. The gross margin of the automobile business was 8.6%, +14.7pct year over year and +2.2pct month-on-month. The Q3 scale effect increased compounded costs and decreased, and gross margin exceeded expectations.
Service revenue and mass service revenue continued to grow, greatly increasing the gross profit margin of the service business. The company's service revenue was 1.31 billion yuan, +90.7% year over year and +1.1% month over month. The gross margin of the service business was 60.1%, +24.0pct year over year, and +5.9pct month-on-month.
The gross margin of the mass service business is high, which greatly increases the overall gross profit margin of the service business. Looking ahead, mass service revenue will contribute steadily every quarter in the future. As EEA revenue begins to be confirmed, it is expected to further increase service business revenue and growth.
On the cost side, R&D expenditure for the third quarter was 1.63 billion yuan, up 25.1% year on year, up 11.3% month on month, R&D cost ratio was 16.2%, +0.86%/-1.9% month on month. S&G was 1.63 billion yuan, -3.5% YoY, +3.8% month-on-month, S&G's fee ratio was 16.2%, down 3.7%/3.2% YoY. The year-on-year decline in S&G expenses was mainly due to a decline in employee pay.
2024Q4 is expected to deliver 0.087-0.091 million vehicles, up 44.6-51.3% year on year, and expected revenue of 15.3-16.2 billion yuan, up 17.2%-24.1% year on year. The new car cycle has started strongly, and the launch and delivery of MONA and P7+ has greatly boosted sales. After the launch of the MONAM03, orders continued to rise. In September and October, the delivery volume exceeded 10,000, and the delivery pace exceeded expectations. The P7+ positioning AI defined car was launched on November 7 and delivered immediately after launch. As of point 24 on the 7th, it will have reached 31,528 vehicles. With the release of the two new cars, the company is expected to achieve a significant increase in sales. The overseas 2.0 strategy has been fully accelerated, with overseas sales reaching a record high, and the export volume ranked first among new power companies. In Q3, overseas sales volume was +70% month-on-month, accounting for 15% of the company's total sales. Currently, it has entered 30 countries and regions, and the goal is to enter more than 60 countries and regions by the end of 2025.
Intelligent driving capabilities continue to lead, a strong start to the new car cycle, superimposed channel changes and strengthened marketing systems, and the company's sales volume is expected to increase at an accelerated pace. Following the success of MONA, the company P7+ became a hit again. At the same time, all P7+ models are equipped with advanced intelligent driving as standard, and the launch of Mona's subsequent high-end intelligent driving models has promoted the increase in the penetration rate of intelligent driving in the industry, which is of great significance. The effects of scale increase, platform and technology cost reduction will be further reflected. The company's finances are expected to continue to improve as business models expand and overseas sales continue to grow with superimposed software profits. The company's 2024 revenue is estimated to be 41.5 billion yuan, corresponding to PS 2.1X. The company is expected to enter an inflection point in the new car cycle and give it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Economic recovery is weaker than expected;
2. Increased competition in the industry weakens corporate profits.
