Earnings reports have concluded and NVIDIA remains unresponsive, resulting in sluggish trading volume.

This week, the Nikkei Average fell by 359.06 yen (-0.93%) to 38,283.85 yen over the week. With earnings reports completed and speculative trading related to the upcoming Trump administration tapering off, negative sentiments such as trade friction were acknowledged, leading to trading volume in the main market to drop below 4 trillion yen throughout the week. The Nikkei Average had a narrow trading range of around 600 yen, lacking clear direction. In individual stocks, Sony Group <6758> soared following reports of considering acquiring Kadokawa <9468>, leading Kadokawa to surge and reach a record high since its listing, as interest shifted to stocks with news. However, despite attention on the major U.S. semiconductor company NVIDIA, its lackluster performance even in after-hours trading failed to spark interest in semiconductor stocks. The Nikkei Average consolidated in the mid-38,000 yen range over the week.

In the second week of November, according to the trading activities by investor type, foreign investors bought 135.5 billion yen worth of stocks, sold 52 billion yen worth of TOPIX futures, and bought 3.3 billion yen worth of 225 futures, resulting in a net buy of 86.8 billion yen. On the other hand, individual investors bought 21.1 billion yen worth of stocks, totaling a net buy of 99.1 billion yen. Securities companies sold 300.5 billion yen worth of stocks, while corporate investors bought 311.4 billion yen worth of stocks, marking the 20th consecutive week of net buying.

Short-term capital has focused on Bitcoin.

The U.S. stock market extended its gains over the weekend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,296.51 yen, up 426.16 points from the previous day, while the Nasdaq ended trading at 19,003.65 yen, up 31.23 points. The Osaka Exchange night session ended at 38,580 yen, 240 yen higher than the daytime close. The Nikkei Average has been fluctuating within a narrow range between the 75-day moving average (75MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA). While the 75-day moving average is acting as a support line, limiting downward movements, the 200-day moving average is a resistance level. The last trading day for rights allocation in November is on the 27th, but with only about 30 stocks involved, it is unlikely to see active trading by individual investors.

There are no significant events scheduled domestically or internationally next week, leading to an expectation of thin trading volume due to a lack of material catalysts. In the foreign exchange market, the rally of the dollar has paused as the trend of rising U.S. interest rates ebbed. Short-term investment funds are flowing towards the cryptocurrency market, notably Bitcoin, which has been breaking record highs daily, resulting in a lack of volatility in both the stock and currency markets.

There is a slightly increasing speculation of an additional interest rate hike at the December meeting. Ahead of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting on December 18-19, there is growing speculation of an additional interest rate hike. In a speech on the 18th, BOJ Governor Kuroda stated: 'Even if the economy and prices move as expected, we will not raise interest rates each time. We will review economic data at each policy meeting and determine the timing of a suitable rate hike.' Furthermore, at the economic forum on the 21st, Governor Kuroda pointed out that 'it is impossible to predict the outcome of the meeting at the moment.' He added, 'There is still about a month to go until December. During that time, a lot of data and information will become available.' Both statements are consistent with previous remarks.

In the market, there is a growing anticipation of an additional interest rate hike at the Bank of Japan's final monetary policy decision meeting of the year on December 18-19. During his speech on the 18th, BOJ Governor Kuroda stated, 'Even if the economy and prices move as expected, we will not raise interest rates each time,' indicating a review of economic data at each policy meeting to determine the appropriate timing of a rate hike. In the economic forum on the 21st, Governor Kuroda noted, 'Predicting the meeting's results at this point is impossible.' He mentioned, 'There is still about a month to go until December. During that time, a lot of data and information will become available.' Both statements align with previous comments.

However, at the Bank of Japan meeting at the end of October, both the Bank of Japan and Governor Ueda decided not to use the expression 'we have time flexibility' in the future, believing that the market was showing a cautious attitude towards additional rate hikes in the near term. The market is also aware of the possibility of additional rate hikes at the December meeting. Although the Dollar Index has risen to the 107 level for the first time since October last year, as expectations for additional rate hikes increase, the foreign exchange market sees a pause in the yen depreciation and dollar appreciation progress at around 154 yen per dollar. In the Tokyo market, regional banks and major banks are showing strong movements, but stocks with interest rate advantages such as financial stocks are likely to see speculative moves leading up to the December meeting. On the other hand, stocks with interest rate disadvantages such as real estate are likely to generally have an uneventful performance.

■ US PCE deflator announcement on the 27th

Next week, domestically, on the 25th the final figure for the September Economic Sentiment Index, on the 29th the October unemployment rate, industrial production (preliminary figure), retail sales, November Tokyo consumer price index, and consumer attitude index are scheduled to be released.

Internationally, on the 25th, New Zealand's 3rd quarter retail sales, October trade balance, Germany's November Ifo Business Climate Index, on the 26th, the US September Home Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price (20 cities), October new home sales, November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, FOMC minutes, on the 27th, Australia's October Consumer Price Index, New Zealand's Reserve Bank of New Zealand Policy Interest Rate, Germany's December GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, US weekly initial jobless claims, 3rd quarter Real GDP (revised), October wholesale inventories (preliminary figure), durable goods orders (preliminary figure), PCE deflator, existing home sales index, weekly crude oil inventories, November Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, on the 28th Europe's November Business Climate Index, Germany's Consumer Price Index (preliminary figure), on the 29th, Turkey's 3rd quarter Real GDP, Germany's November unemployment rate, Europe's November Consumer Price Index (preliminary figure) are scheduled to be released.