音乐业务增长稳健，SVIP超过1000万。24Q3在线音乐业务收入为54.8亿元，YoY+20%，QoQ+1%，vs.一致预期为55.84亿元。（1）订阅收入为38.4亿元，YoY+20%，QoQ+3%，vs.一致预期为38.64亿元。会员数为1.19亿，YoY+16%，QoQ+2%，vs.一致预期为1.1883亿；ARPU为 10.8 元，YoY+5%，QoQ+1%，vs.一致预期为 10.84 元。截止 24 年9 月底，SVIP 突破 1000 万，未来持续提升 SVIP 规模和 ARPU 值。Core views:
The company released its 24Q3 quarterly report: 24Q3 total revenue of 7.015 billion yuan, YOY/QoQ +7%/-2%, vs. consistent expectations of 7 billion yuan. NonGaap's net profit to mother was 1.814 billion yuan, YoY +29%, QoQ -3%, vs. the agreed forecast of 1.919 billion yuan. Nongaap's net profit margin was 25.9%, YOY+4.4pct, QoQ-0.3pct.24q3 gross margin was 42.6%, vs.
Consistent expectations were 42.4%, YOY+7pct, QoQ+0.6pct.
The music business grew steadily, with SVIPs over 10 million. The 24Q3 online music business revenue was 5.48 billion yuan, YoY +20%, QoQ +1%, vs. the agreed forecast of 5.584 billion yuan. (1) Subscription revenue was 3.84 billion yuan, YoY +20%, QoQ +3%, vs. consistent expectations of 3.864 billion yuan. The number of members was 0.119 billion, YoY +16%, QoQ +2%, vs. the agreed expectation was 0.11883 billion; ARPU was 10.8 yuan, YoY +5%, QoQ +1%, vs. the agreed expectation was 10.84 yuan. By the end of September '24, SVIP had surpassed 10 million, and the SVIP scale and ARPU value will continue to increase in the future.
(2) Non-subscription revenue was 1.64 billion yuan, YoY +20%, QoQ -2%, vs. consistent expectations of 1.7 billion yuan. In the future, it is expected that this business will grow under the resonance of commercial models such as advertising, offline concert ticketing, and peripheral services. The decline in the social entertainment business has narrowed and is expected to stabilize from month to month.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The number of members is expected to increase by 2 million in 24Q4, and the ARPU value will increase to 11 yuan. 24Q4 revenue is expected to be 7.3 billion yuan, up 6% year over year, and NongAAP's net profit to mother is estimated to be 2 billion yuan, YoY +29%. The long-term membership space and price increase trend remain unchanged. The estimated 24-25 revenue is 28.2/31.1 billion yuan, up 1.7% .10.3%; adjusted net profit to mother for 24-25 is 7.423/8.884 billion yuan, up 25.3% and 19.7%. The reasonable value of the company is estimated at US$13.75 per ADS, or HK$53.45 per share based on segment valuation, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The risk that emerging forms of entertainment will divert users and time, that the ceiling of membership business falls short of expectations, and that live streaming revenue will continue to decline.
