1) 行业：根据SEMI，全球半导体制造产能预计将在2024 年增长6%，中国引领半导体行业晶圆厂产能扩张，中国芯片制造商未来两年预计将保持两位数的产能增长，中国芯片制造商将在2024 年增长15%至885 万（wpm）后，继而将在2025 年增长14%至1010 万（wpm），几乎占据行业总产能的三分之一，刻蚀机、薄膜沉积设备为半导体设备的主要核心设备，市场占比均在20%，半导体前道设备多环节国产化率低于20%，国产化率有望提升。Investment summary
A leading domestic semiconductor equipment supplier, with rapid revenue growth and continuous increase in net interest rates. The company is a leading domestic semiconductor equipment supplier. It was reorganized from Qixing Electronics and Northern Microelectronics in 2016. It focuses on R&D, production, sales and technical services of basic semiconductor products. The main products are electronic process equipment and electronic components. The company's revenue and net profit to mother have maintained a rapid growth trend for many years. In 2019-2023, the company's revenue increased from 4.058 billion yuan to 22.079 billion yuan, and the CAGR reached 52.82%. Net profit to mother increased from 0.309 billion yuan to 3.899 billion yuan in 2019-2023, and the CAGR reached 88.47%. Net profit margin increased from 9.11% to 18.26% in 2019-2023, and CAGR reached 18.99%. Revenue and net profit to mother were 20.353 billion yuan and 4.463 billion yuan respectively in the first three quarters of 2024, with year-on-year increases of +39.51% and +54.72%, respectively.
Benefiting from the expansion of fab production and domestic replacement, the company is a leader in ICP and PVD equipment, with a rich product range and outstanding platform-based advantages
1) Industry: According to SEMI, global semiconductor manufacturing capacity is expected to grow by 6% in 2024. China is leading the semiconductor industry's fab capacity expansion. Chinese chipmakers are expected to maintain double-digit capacity growth in the next two years. After increasing 15% to 8.85 million (wpm) in 2024, they will then grow 14% to 10.1 million (wpm) in 2025, accounting for almost one-third of the total production capacity of the industry. Etching machines and thin film deposition equipment are the main core of semiconductor equipment Equipment accounts for 20% of the market. The localization rate of semiconductor front-end equipment is less than 20%, and the localization rate is expected to increase.
2) Company: Etching equipment accounts for a high share of the semiconductor equipment sector. The global and domestic etching equipment market continues to grow. The global etching equipment market shows a high monopoly pattern. As a leading domestic supplier of high-end electronic process equipment, the company has been deeply involved in ICP etching technology for more than 20 years. By the end of 2023, the company had shipped more than 3,200 cavities of ICP etching equipment. In 2023, the global and Chinese film deposition equipment markets were about 21.1 billion US dollars and 6.1 billion US dollars respectively. Global thin film deposition equipment showed a competitive pattern with a high monopoly of international giants. The company began PVD equipment research and development in 2008 and became a pioneer in PVD process equipment technology in China. By the end of 2023, the company had launched more than 40 PVD equipment, with cumulative shipments exceeding 3,500 cavities.
Investment advice
Considering that the company is a leading supplier of semiconductor equipment in China, with rich product categories and outstanding platform-based advantages, we expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to 29.88, 38.94, and 48.815 billion yuan, respectively, up 35.33%, 30.32% and 25.36% year-on-year respectively, and net profit to mother will be 5.78, 7.715, and 9.406 billion yuan, respectively, up 48.24%, 33.48%, and 21.91% year-on-year respectively. The corresponding EPS is 10.84, 14.47, and 17.64 yuan/share, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 40, 30, and 25 times, respectively. First coverage, “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Human resources risk; supply chain risk; technology renewal risk;