As every investor would know, not every swing hits the sweet spot. But you have a problem if you face massive losses more than once in a while. So spare a thought for the long term shareholders of Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN); the share price is down a whopping 79% in the last three years. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 52% in the last three months. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Sunrun isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
Sunrun isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
In the last three years, Sunrun saw its revenue grow by 8.8% per year, compound. That's a pretty good rate of top-line growth. So it's hard to believe the share price decline of 21% per year is due to the revenue. It could be that the losses were much larger than expected. If you buy into companies that lose money then you always risk losing money yourself. Just don't lose the lesson.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Sunrun is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Sunrun will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
A Different Perspective
Investors in Sunrun had a tough year, with a total loss of 10%, against a market gain of about 33%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 5% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for Sunrun (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.