S&P Global stated that the UK's comprehensive PMI in November plummeted from 51.8 last month to 49.9, slightly below the boom-bust line of 50, far below the economists' expectation of 51.7.
According to the Securities Times APP, S&P Global stated that the UK's comprehensive PMI in November plummeted from 51.8 last month to 49.9, slightly below the boom-bust line of 50, far below the economists' expectation of 51.7. The survey shows that UK businesses hold a 'clearly negative attitude' towards UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves' fiscal plan. After the budget was announced, the UK private sector went from stable growth to stagnation.
This is the lowest reading in more than a year. The survey shows that part of the reason for the loss of confidence is the announced increase in corporate payroll taxes on October 30. Business expectations for economic activity in the next year are the most pessimistic since the end of 2022.
As traders increase bets on the Bank of England easing monetary policy, investors have fully digested the expectation of three 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of 2025, causing UK bond prices to rise. The British pound continued its decline against the US dollar, falling by as much as 0.8% to $1.2494, but still rose against the euro after the Eurozone PMI data fell short of expectations.
These data will cause concern for the new Labour government led by Keir Starmer. Since winning the election on July 4th, the government has made revitalizing the lukewarm UK economic growth rate one of its main tasks. However, this survey is one of the clearest signs to date that Reeves' first budget will only exacerbate business concerns.
Businesses bear the brunt of the 40 billion British pounds ($50 billion) tax increase, and following another substantial increase in the minimum wage, many businesses are also facing cost rises.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: 'The November PMI indicates that the economy is entering a moderate downturn, with a quarterly GDP decline of 0.1%, but the loss of confidence suggests that worse conditions, including further unemployment, may be on the horizon unless sentiment improves.'
He stated: 'Businesses clearly express 'disapproval' of the policies announced in the budget, especially the planned increase in employer National Insurance contributions.'
A survey shows that the service sector, which serves as the engine of economic growth in the United Kingdom, significantly slowed down this month. The service sector PMI dropped from 52 to 50, hitting a 13-month low, while manufacturing output contracted at the fastest pace in 9 months.
A survey shows that the growth of new business is the weakest since December 2023. Respondents pointed out that they would remain cautious after the budget announcement, but some mentioned that the clarity after the US election has had a positive impact on demand.