Mister Car Wash, Inc. (NYSE:MCW) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 25% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Notwithstanding the latest gain, the annual share price return of 5.8% isn't as impressive.
Since its price has surged higher, Mister Car Wash may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 34.6x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 19x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Mister Car Wash hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Mister Car Wash would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 17%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 22% each year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 11% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we can see why Mister Car Wash is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
What We Can Learn From Mister Car Wash's P/E?
Shares in Mister Car Wash have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of Mister Car Wash's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Mister Car Wash you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
