Biglari Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BH.A) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 25% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 45%.
Although its price has surged higher, Biglari Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.7x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 20x and even P/E's above 36x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Biglari Holdings has been doing very well. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like Biglari Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 159% last year. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 65% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 15% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
In light of this, it's understandable that Biglari Holdings' P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent earnings trends are already weighing down the shares.
The Bottom Line On Biglari Holdings' P/E
The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Biglari Holdings' P/E close to the market median. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
As we suspected, our examination of Biglari Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term are contributing to its low P/E, given the market is set to grow. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Biglari Holdings you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
