新房费率增长明显，新房业务收入增速高于GTV 增速。2024Q3 公司新房业务收入实现77 亿元（yoy+30.9%），主要由于新房GTV 同比+18.4%至2276 亿元，以及新房佣金费率的提升。其中，通过贝壳经纪人、具备新房业务相关专业的专门销售团队和其他销售渠道在贝壳平台上促成的新房交易的GTV 实现1830亿元（yoy+20.5%），通过链家品牌进行的新房GTV 实现445 亿元（yoy+10.5%）。Incident: Shell-W announced the 2024Q3 performance report. 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 22.6 billion yuan (yoy +26.8%); realized net profit of 1.168 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit of 1.782 billion yuan.
The stock housing business GTV grew steadily, and the revenue from the stock housing business did not increase significantly due to the decline in the share of Chainjia brand transactions. In Q3 2024, the company's stock housing business achieved revenue of 6.2 billion yuan, which is basically the same as the same period last year.
Total housing stock transactions reached 477.8 billion yuan (yoy +8.8%). While the stock housing business GTV achieved significant growth, the main reason why stock housing revenue did not record an increase is that the share of total stock housing transactions carried out by Beilun brokers increased. This portion of revenue is measured on the net basis of platform services, franchise services, and other value-added services, while for the total transaction volume carried out through the Chainjia brand, revenue is measured on the basis of total commission revenue.
New housing rates have increased significantly, and the revenue growth rate of the new housing business is higher than that of GTV. 2024Q3's new housing business revenue reached 7.7 billion yuan (yoy +30.9%), mainly due to the year-on-year GTV for new homes +18.4% to 227.6 billion yuan, and the increase in commission rates for new homes. Among them, GTV for new housing transactions facilitated on the Shell platform through Shell brokers, dedicated sales teams with expertise related to the new housing business, and other sales channels achieved 183 billion yuan (yoy +20.5%), and 44.5 billion yuan (yoy +10.5%) through GTV of new homes carried out by the Chainjia brand.
The integrated tri-wing strategy has achieved remarkable results, and its share of revenue continues to rise. The company actively promoted the “Three Wings of One” strategy, and 2024Q3's revenue from home improvement business, housing rental business, emerging business and others increased 54.3% year-on-year, further increasing its share of total revenue to 38.3% (yoy+6.8pct). Among them, the revenue scale of the home improvement and home furnishing business reached 4.21 billion yuan (yoy +32.6%); the revenue from housing rental services reached 3.94 billion yuan (yoy +118.4%), mainly due to the increase in the number of rental properties under the worry-free rental model.
It focuses on shareholder returns, and is expected to open in the first quarter of next year. Under a steady cash reserve, the company continues to return to shareholders and share development dividends with investors. 2024Q3 spent about 0.2 billion dollars to repurchase shares. Since this year, up to the end of 2024Q3, the company has spent a total of 0.58 billion dollars to repurchase shares, accounting for about 3.32% of the total shares issued at the end of 2023. Cumulatively, since the launch of the company's repurchase program in September 2022, the company has spent about 1.49 billion US dollars to repurchase shares, accounting for about 8.10% of the total issued share capital before the repurchase plan was initiated. Furthermore, according to the conditions for inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect, the company has now basically met the screening criteria and is expected to be officially included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect in the first quarter of next year.
Profit forecasting and valuation. The company's revenue grew at the same time as GTV. The integrated tripartite strategy achieved remarkable results, and continued share repurchases showed confidence in development. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 91.37 billion yuan, 101.21 billion yuan, and 112.03 billion yuan respectively, with net profit to mother of 6.4 billion yuan, 6.94 billion yuan, and 7.68 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 27.2x, 25.1x, and 22.7x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: The popularity of housing stock is unsustainable, the recovery of new housing transactions is lower than expected, and the scale expansion is not smooth.
