同样作为财长的另一前期热门人选，贝森特似乎对这一特殊的决定早有预料。USA Treasury Secretary nominee Yellen is expected to be nominated as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Analysis suggests that the 'shadow chairman' may intervene in the direction of monetary policy ahead of the official assumption of office in 2026, conveying Trump's 'low interest rate' inclination, exacerbating the risk of soaring inflation. At the same time, the Federal Reserve Chairman does not have complete decision-making authority over policy rates, which may also make the monetary policy outlook more uncertain.
Is Trump planning to intervene in mmf policy decisions by appointing the Federal Reserve Chairman in advance?
According to media reports on Friday, dark horse candidate Kevin Warsh is expected to win the position of Secretary of the Treasury, and he may also be nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman after Powell's term ends in May 2026.
Similarly, another former leading candidate for Secretary of Treasury, Bansent, seems to have anticipated this special decision.
In October of this year, Bansent stated in an interview with the media that Trump would likely have the Republican-controlled Senate confirm his successor at the beginning of 2025 (before Powell's term ends), thus setting up a 'shadow' Federal Reserve Chairman.
Trump can set up a 'shadow' chairman by nominating the next Federal Reserve Chairman in advance.
Once there is a 'shadow' Federal Reserve Chairman and forward guidance, no one will really care about Powell's statements anymore.
Analysts point out that although Bansent's idea is unprecedented, it could indeed be adopted by Congress.
What impact does the establishment of a 'shadow chairman' have on the Federal Reserve?
An article from the news site 'Very Serious' comments that as Trump is about to take office as the president of the usa, he is expected to gain more control over mmf, guiding the policy path towards low interest rates.
The article states that the Federal Reserve largely operates through forward guidance—not only by setting today's short-term interest rates to influence long-term rates, but also by informing market participants how it intends to set future rates to influence long-term rates.
This means that the designated future chairman can influence mmf in 2025, simply by stating what he or she intends to do after assuming the chairmanship in 2026.
This implies that if Waller is indeed favored to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, he will intervene in Federal Reserve decisions earlier and convey Trump's mmf tendencies to some extent, undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve.
The article analysis indicates that despite the establishment of a 'shadow chairman' being able to intervene in the mmf path to some extent, the ultimate interest rate decisions are made collectively by the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and Trump cannot 'manipulate' the direction of interest rates.
Therefore, the analysis speculates that appointing a 'shadow' chairman whose views are inconsistent with the current chairman and other FOMC members may lead to increased market uncertainty regarding future mmf. This uncertainty could increase the risk premium associated with long-term fixed-rate debt, subsequently leading to an increase in some politically significant interest rates (such as mortgage rates).
Meanwhile, the article points out that due to the federal government maintaining a high deficit, the economy has been overstimulated, and if the 'shadow chairman' really manages to lower interest rates as desired, leading to mmf being unexpectedly loose next year, the likely consequence would be a surge in inflation.
Article warning:
If Trump wants to play stupid games with the Federal Reserve, he will win a stupid prize.
Editor/ping
