营收同比下滑预计主因持续受国内业务拖累，部分主机厂降价、对部分区域对流线路不匹配的业务进行优化等因素的影响，整车运输规模有所下降；但预计国际业务板块为毛利率带来较大贡献，驱动利润同比提升。Key investment points
The company announced its 2024 three-quarter report: Q3 revenue of 1.087 billion yuan, +12% year on year, net profit to mother 0.009 billion yuan, -81% year on year, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.012 billion yuan, -74% year on year.
Total for the first three quarters: revenue of 2.91 billion yuan, +1.8% year on year, net profit to mother of 0.061 billion yuan, -32% year on year, net profit of non-return to mother 0.065 billion yuan, -28.3% year on year.
The year-on-year decline in revenue is expected to be mainly due to factors such as continuing to be dragged down by domestic business, price cuts by some OEMs, and optimization of businesses with mismatched convection routes in some regions; however, the international business sector is expected to make a significant contribution to gross margin, driving a year-on-year increase in profits.
At the right time for the international business boom, the scale of capacity expanded again
According to Clarkson, roRo boat rentals for 6,500 standard parking spaces have remained above $0.1 million/day since the beginning of the year. The new 6,200 “Jiuyanglong” wheels purchased by the company this year have a total cargo area of about 0.052 million square meters. The three floors are liftable decks, which can support vehicles up to 5.1 meters high and weigh less than 150 tons per piece; they can handle 6,200 standard passenger cars at one time. The “Jiuyanglong” ship held a naming and inaugural flight ceremony on August 9. The company and partners will jointly launch it on global routes to help Chinese-made cars “go global”, “bring in” international brand cars, and help the global automobile industry prosper and develop.
Transfer of shares in the wholly-owned subsidiary Xi'an Tianyuan Weiye
The company transferred 100.00% of its shares in Xi'an Tianyuan Weiye, a wholly-owned subsidiary, to Sino-Singapore Digital Technology in October 2024. The transfer price was 30 million yuan to revitalize the company's assets and rationally allocate resources.
A supplementary agreement was signed with Guangdong Dido and its founder to sign a supplementary agreement for 2024-2026, Guangdong Dido, and founder Zeng Qingqian, after negotiations, to sign a supplementary agreement to commit Guangdong Didu's business performance in 2024-2026:2024, 2025, and 2026 are used as performance commitment periods, during which time the target company's net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss is not less than 20 million yuan, 30.1 million yuan, and 30.1 million yuan, respectively.
Profit forecasting and valuation
The estimated net profit for 2024-2026 is 0.088, 0.121, and 0.139 billion yuan, corresponding to 57, 42, and 36xPE, respectively. As a third-party automotive logistics leader, the company is expected to benefit from a recovery in both production and sales in the main business. At the right time, the international shipping business is booming, and the scale of the company's capacity continues to expand. At the same time, the new energy business is creating a second growth curve, driving new performance growth points through digital intelligence transformation, and maintaining a “gain” rating.
Risk warning
Poor macro demand has led to automobile production, falling short of expectations, international business risks, and debt-for-equity swaps.
