先进陶瓷全产业链完整布局，半导体“卡脖子”产品快速发展。公司是国内本土少数掌握陶瓷材料、部件制造、新品表面处理和产品检测完整产业链技术的企业，根据弗若斯特沙利文数据，2021年公司占中国大陆国产半导体设备先进结构陶瓷采购总额约14%，占中国大陆国产半导体设备的大陆本土先进结构陶瓷供应商供应总额约72%，现已进入A公司等全球知名半导体设备商供应链，并与北方华创、中微公司、拓荆科技等国内半导体设备龙头建立稳定、深入的合作关系。半导体产业链“卡脖子”产品方面，公司近年加速发展陶瓷加热器、静电卡盘、超高纯碳化硅等模块产品，其中陶瓷加热器已通过客户验证并实现量产，未来成长可期。Core synopsis
Investment logic
Advanced ceramic materials have excellent properties, and there is broad scope for domestic replacement of semiconductor applications. Advanced ceramic materials have excellent physical, chemical, and biological properties. With the development of semiconductor processes and the improvement of display panel generations, the comprehensive properties and processing technology of advanced ceramics need to be continuously optimized. In the context of diversified downstream demand, the development of new alternative materials has become an industry trend. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the 2023E global/Chinese pan-semiconductor advanced structural ceramics market size was 42.3 billion yuan and 8.7 billion yuan respectively, and the 2022 E-2026E global/Chinese pan-semiconductor advanced structural ceramics market CAGR was 7% and 14% respectively. China's advanced ceramics industry started late. In 2021, the localization rate of advanced structural ceramic components for semiconductor equipment produced in mainland China increased to about 19%, and there is broad scope for domestic replacement.
The entire advanced ceramics industry chain is fully laid out, and semiconductor “stuck neck” products are developing rapidly. The company is one of the few domestic enterprises that have mastered the complete industrial chain technology for ceramic materials, component manufacturing, new product surface treatment and product inspection. According to Frost & Sullivan data, in 2021, the company accounted for about 14% of the total procurement of advanced structural ceramics for semiconductor equipment in mainland China, and about 72% of the total supply of advanced structural ceramics suppliers in mainland China. It has now entered the supply chain of world-renowned semiconductor equipment vendors such as Company A, and has established stable and in-depth cooperative relationships with leading domestic semiconductor equipment companies such as North China Huachuang, China Micro, and Tuojing Technology. In terms of “stuck neck” products in the semiconductor industry chain, the company has accelerated the development of modular products such as ceramic heaters, electrostatic chucks, and ultra-high purity silicon carbide in recent years. Among them, ceramic heaters have passed customer verification and mass production, and future growth can be expected.
Focus on display panel surface treatment to accelerate the development of the semiconductor business. With the rapid development of the global semiconductor and panel display industry, the industrial division of labor is gradually being refined, and surface treatment outsourcing is gradually becoming a trend. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the surface treatment service market size for pan-semiconductor equipment components in China in 2021 is 3.7 billion yuan, and the market size CAGR is expected to be 14% from 2022 to 2026. The company is currently in a leading position in the surface treatment market for display panel etching equipment, and the semiconductor surface treatment business is expected to accelerate development.
Investment advice: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 0.807/1.086/1.35 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.29/0.417/0.526 billion yuan respectively, corresponding EPS 0.67/0.96/1.21 yuan, and corresponding PE 93X/65X/52X respectively. The company is a leader in advanced ceramic materials in China. Semiconductor equipment module products are developing rapidly, future growth can be expected, and maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: New product development and customer verification fall short of expectations; high risk of customer concentration; progress of downstream production expansion falls short of expectations; industry competition increases risk; risk of raw material supply stability and price fluctuations; public data used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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