Spot gold broke through the $2690.00 per ounce mark, currently trading at $2690.01 per ounce, up 0.77% intraday; COMEX gold futures main contract latest at $2692.30 per ounce, up 0.65% intraday.

Established fund gold ETF AU, Tianhong Fund Shanghai Gold ETF, Rich State Fund Gold ETF, ICBC Credit Suisse Fund Gold ETF Fund, Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund Gold Fund ETF, Gold ETF ChinaAMC, Southern Fund Gold ETF, Boshui Fund Gold ETF Fund, Huaxia Fund Gold ETF, Jiashi Fund Shanghai Gold ETF Fund, E Fund Gold ETF, Bank of China Fund Bank of China Shanghai Gold ETF, GF Fund Shanghai Gold ETF, Guotai Fund Gold Fund ETF rose against the trend, with a year-to-date increase of over 28%.

As of November 21, a net inflow of funds exceeding 28.3 billion yuan into gold ETFs year-to-date. Among them, Huaxia Fund Gold ETF, E Fund Gold ETF, Boshui Fund Gold ETF Fund, Guotai Fund Gold Fund ETF, Yongying Fund Gold Stock ETF led in net inflows of funds year-to-date, with net inflows of 9.854 billion yuan, 6.2 billion yuan, 4.567 billion yuan, 34.46 billion yuan, 1.601 billion yuan respectively.

On the news front, a major breakthrough was made in the exploration of the Mangudian Gold Mine in Pingjiang County, Hunan. The Hunan Provincial Geological Survey Institute's Hunan Geological Disaster Investigation and Monitoring Institute discovered over 40 gold veins in the deep strata more than 2000 meters underground in the Mangudian Gold Mine area, with the highest gold grade reaching 138 grams per ton, accumulating a total gold resource volume of 300.2 tons in the core exploration area.

Looking at the supply and demand of gold, global and Chinese gold supply increased in the third quarter: in the first three quarters of 2024, the total global gold supply reached 3761.9 tons, an increase of approximately 2.7% year-on-year, with a 5.1% year-on-year increase to 1313 tons in the third quarter, reaching a record high for a single quarter. In China, in the first three quarters of 2024, a total of 379.275 tons of gold were produced nationwide, an increase of 3.20% year-on-year.

Global and Chinese gold demand declined overall in the third quarter, but investment demand remained strong: the total global gold demand for the first three quarters was 3259 tons, a decrease of 2.34% year-on-year; among them, the total global gold demand for the third quarter was 1176.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, but the highest in four quarters, increasing by 23% compared to the previous quarter. In addition, if off-market investments are included, the total global gold demand in the third quarter increased by 5% year-on-year to reach 1313 tons, setting a demand record for the third quarter.

Since the 19th century, the reserve status and value of gold have been constantly changing, with the central gold price gradually rising. From the gold standard and gold exchange standard of the 19th century to the Bretton Woods system of the 1950s with gold and the US dollar dual standard, and then to the Jamaica system established in the late 1970s, the international monetary system has gradually transitioned from commodity money to credit money, from fixed exchange rates to floating exchange rates.

Since 1970, gold has gone through three cycles: the first cycle from Q1 1970 to Q4 1999, the second cycle from Q1 2000 to Q4 2015, and the third cycle from Q1 2016 to the present. The average duration of a bull market in each major gold cycle is 11 years. This current bull market, which started in 2016, has lasted for 8-9 years, with gold prices reaching an accumulated increase of 165% by November 2024.

Regarding gold, research reports from Donghai Securities pointed out that gold may face another allocation window, with the possibility of reaching new highs in 2025. The current risk contention partly stems from the convergence of safe-haven demand, the 'reflation' expectations of the Trump administration, and potential capital flows from Bitcoin to gold. However, all of these are short- to medium-term logics affecting gold price movements. The subsequent evolution of assets will depend on observing the implementation of Trump's policies. Looking back to January 2017 when Trump took office, tax cuts and healthcare reform were stalled, causing the US dollar to return to a downward trajectory. In the medium to long term, gold price movements need to return to the cycles of the FOMC monetary policy, global economic fundamentals, and the underlying logic of de-dollarization. A weakening of the US dollar's strong foundation may alleviate pressure on gold. In addition, SPDRGold Shares and other gold ETFs turned to net increases in August 2024. Despite gold's cumulative increase of nearly 70% from Q4 2022 to the present, future odds may converge, but it is premature to talk about the appearance of gold's cyclical turning points.

UBS Group pointed out that in the current complex and volatile market environment, the safe-haven properties and diversified investment value of gold remain prominent. Although in the short term, gold prices may fluctuate due to various factors (such as fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate, changes in market risk preferences, etc.), in the long term, changes in global macroeconomic fundamentals and financial market structures will have a positive impact on the gold market. For example, as global central banks continue to implement loose monetary policies to stimulate economic growth and the possibility of rising inflation expectations, this will enhance the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedge. Additionally, factors such as geopolitical risks, financial market instability, and the prolonged low-interest rate environment will prompt investors to include gold in their portfolios to achieve asset preservation, appreciation, and risk diversification goals.