据国家统计局数据，行业2013年产量见顶后，进入价格主导及利润改善的阶段：行业龙头主要通过布局高端产品提升产品结构以及关厂提效提升产能利用率等变革方式，带动吨价显著提升，同时净利率从低个位数提升至双位数。据中国酒业协会提出“十四五”规划，2025年啤酒行业高端及超高端消费量占比将达到30%，我们认为对标海外啤酒企业，国内酒企提效及结构升级空间充足，利润中枢有望进一步上移。Investment summary
China's beer industry has entered an era of stock competition, and product structure upgrades drive the profit center upward.
Since 2017, CR5 in China's beer industry has accounted for more than 85%, and the overall competitive pattern is stable.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, after peaking in 2013, the industry entered a stage of price dominance and profit improvement: industry leaders mainly drove a significant increase in tonnage prices through changes such as laying out high-end products to improve product structure and improving production capacity utilization, while net interest rates rose from low single digits to double digits. According to the “14th Five-Year Plan” proposed by the China Liquor Industry Association, the beer industry will account for 30% of high-end and ultra-high-end consumption in 2025. We believe that when targeting overseas beer companies, there is plenty of room for efficiency improvement and structural upgrading, and the profit center is expected to rise further.
The share of the Tsing Beer market is stable at the top of the industry, and high-end competition has an advantage. With its leading edge in brand, quality, and channel dimensions, the company's sales volume has remained above 7.8 million kiloliters since 2012, and its market share increased from 16.12% in 2012 to 22.52% in 2023, ranking second in the beer industry. 1) Leading brand value: The company has built a main product echelon around the “main brand of Tsingtao Brewer+second brand of Laoshan Beer”, with a multi-price range and a comprehensive product matrix. The brand value has ranked first in the Chinese beer industry for 21 consecutive years; 2) Adhering to the quality of ingenuity: the company implements strict control of the entire production process, and the product quality is excellent; 3) Strong channel foundation: the company forms an absolute advantage in the Shandong base market and deeply cultivates the “one or two horizontal” (along the coast and yellow) Jiang) Market strategy belt, focusing on rapid breakthroughs in major products, online The three tiers of, offline, and overseas have gone hand in hand to achieve growth.
In recent years, the company has rapidly developed new products to promote iterative upgrading. Since 2012, it has launched a number of high-end new products such as Augut, Classic 1903, Fortune, Pearson Beer, IPA, 100 Year Tour, Amber Lager, and I Legend. The sales share of high-end products increased significantly from 20.39% in 2017 to 40.46% in 2023. We believe that as an industry leader, the company has the ability to maintain a competitive advantage in the middle and high-end wave and achieve a steady rise in revenue and profit scale.
The product structure improves the quality and efficiency of the stacking processing plant, and the profitability is steadily improving. As the share of high-end products increased, the company's gross margin increased by 1.95% to 38.66% in 2021-2023. At the same time, through excellent cost control capabilities and internal efficiency improvements, the company's net interest rate achieved a rapid increase of 1% per year, and had increased to 12.81% as of 2023. We expect that in the future, the company will steadily advance in cost control and efficiency combined with high-end products, and profitability is expected to improve steadily.
Investment advice
After 100 years of accumulation, the company has the best brand value in the beer industry, a product matrix with full price coverage, and a three-dimensional and flexible channel operation system. In the future, through product structure upgrades and internal management efficiency optimization, the company will benefit from falling costs and prices of imported barley, packaging materials, etc., contributing to profit flexibility in the short term. It is expected to achieve continuous and steady growth over the long term with improved tonnage prices and production efficiency. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 32.875 billion yuan, 33.825 billion yuan, and 34.84 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of -3.13%, 2.89%, and 3.00%, respectively, and net profit to mother of 4.488 billion yuan, 4.853 billion yuan, and 5.249 billion yuan, respectively. The growth rates are 5.16%, 8.13%, and 8.16%, respectively. The corresponding PE valuations are 22x, 20x. 19x, first coverage, gives a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic growth falls short of expectations, increased competition in the middle and high-end markets, the risk of rising costs, and the risk of extreme weather.
