受此消息提振，航空股持续回暖。其中中国国航的今日股价已突破今年年初新高，同样中国南方航空的股价也接近10月8日的新高。① What are the impacts of the holiday adjustment on consumer tourism? ② How do institutions view the performance of the airlines industry in the future?
According to The Financial Association, on November 22 (editor Hu Jiarong), benefiting from the recently announced bullish holiday extension, Hong Kong's airline stocks continue to strengthen. As of the time of this report,$AIR CHINA (00753.HK)$、$CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055.HK)$、 $CHINA EAST AIR (00670.HK)$、$CATHAY PAC AIR (00293.HK)$Increased by 3.38%, 2.51%, 2.13%, and 0.65% respectively. Among them, air china limited's stock rose over 60% in a month and a half, reaching a new high for the year.
In recent news, the General Office of the State Council issued a notice regarding the arrangement of certain public holidays in 2025: starting from January 1, 2025, the number of days off for all citizens will increase by 2 days, including an additional day for both the Spring Festival and Labor Day. This means that in 2025, the Spring Festival and National Day will come with an 8-day long holiday, and Labor Day will have a 5-day long holiday.
Boosted by this news, the aviation/airlines industry continues to recover. Among them, air china limited's stock price has surpassed the new high set at the beginning of this year, while china southern airlines' stock price is also approaching the new high from October 8.
Analysis indicates that holidays are important points for stimulating tourism, transportation, dining, and other consumer activities. In 2024, the number of domestic trips and consumer expenditure during multiple holidays such as the May Day and National Day will hit historical highs. The overall increase of 2 days in statutory holidays for 2025 is much anticipated, coupled with the notice emphasizing that 'except for certain special circumstances, continuous work during statutory holidays should generally not exceed 6 days', which means that the public's concern about 'holiday adjustments' will be alleviated.
Citic Sec also pointed out that according to the revised 'National Holidays and Memorial Days Leave Measures' in November 2024, starting from 2025, public holidays for all citizens will increase by 2 days. Referring to the market performance during the 2024 Spring Festival, this revision will significantly stimulate the travel demand of the populace in terms of time conditions and willingness.
The brokerage further stated that the introduction of a series of debt relief and consumer promotion policies is expected to positively affect the demand side, with a clear trend of tight supply in the industry. Airlines' domestic revenue management strategies may achieve 'correction of chaos', as airline performance is highly sensitive to ticket prices and has considerable elasticity in profit margins.
October airline operation data is impressive.
In addition to the ongoing positive stimulation from the extended holidays, several airlines including China East Air, Hainan Airlines Holding, and Air China Limited have released announcements regarding their main operational data for October. Among them, major passenger airlines have collectively increased in key indicators such as capacity deployment and passenger turnover year-on-year.
GTJA stated that China's aviation industry remains one of the few sectors with super-expectation long-term logic. Airline profits for Q3 2024 are again higher than Q3 2019, exceeding market expectations. The future trend of supply and demand recovery is confirmed, and the increase of international flights will continue to absorb domestic capacity, with aviation demand expected to be boosted by policies.
Editor/ping