给予“强烈推荐”投资评级。我们预计百济神州2024-2026 年营业收入分别为268.7 亿元、338.2 亿元、424.6 亿元，同比增长54%、26%、26%。2024年大幅减亏，2024-2026 年利润分别为亏损43.4 亿元、亏损12.0 亿元，盈利12.5 亿元。首次覆盖，给予“强烈推荐”投资评级。BeiGene is an international pharmaceutical company that has completed global sales of innovative products. Its deep understanding and scientific layout in the field of diseases is fundamental to ensure continued competitiveness. We are optimistic about the rapid release of products such as zebutinib in the short to medium term from BeiGene and the competitiveness of medium- to long-term pipeline products.
BeiGene: An international pharmaceutical company that has entered the global competitive arena. BeiGene is one of the pharmaceutical companies with the most advanced internationalization progress in China. The core products PD-1 monoclonal tirelizumab and the BTK inhibitor zebutinib were both sold domestically and overseas, and the company's overseas revenue accounted for more than 60% of the company's overseas revenue in the first half of 2024. The founders, management team and shareholders have an international background, empowering Baekje to innovate globally. It has global competitiveness in the research pipeline.
Understand the layout of the BeiGene Innovation Pipeline from disease logic. Innovative drugs may be iterated due to patent periods or treatment updates, but demand for disease treatment will not disappear, so a pipeline layout based on in-depth understanding of diseases will inject lasting vitality into the company. In the field of hematologic oncology, BeiGene uses the BTK inhibitor zebutinib as a base to challenge first-line treatment standards, and also lays out BTK CDAC to lay out the BTK inhibitor resistance market, maintaining an absolute leading position in B-cell malignancies. In the field of breast cancer, lay out next-generation CDK inhibitors to challenge the largest market for breast cancer drugs. Hormone receptor-positive and HER2 negative breast cancer is the most common genotype in breast cancer. CDK4/6 inhibitors are currently the cornerstone drugs for first-line treatment, but there is room for upgrading and iteration in both safety and efficacy. BeiGene deployed CDK4 inhibitors and concomitant use of CDK2 inhibitors to challenge the therapeutic status of CDK4/6 inhibitors. At the same time, the B7H4 ADC is deployed in the pipeline to cover triple-negative breast cancer treatment products. Disease treatment in the field of lung cancer is distinguished according to whether it is genotypic driven. BeiGene lays out pan-KRAS inhibitors and EGFR CDAC in the NSCLC field driven by genetic mutations, lelizumab and combined TIGIT antibodies in the NSCLC field where genetic mutations are not driven, and products such as DLL3 TCE dual antibodies and B7H3 ADC are deployed in the field of small cell lung cancer. In the field of autoimmune diseases, BeiGene lays out the upstream target IRAK4 based on its CDAC technology platform.
Give it a “Highly Recommended” investment rating. We expect BeiGene's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 26.87 billion yuan, 33.82 billion yuan, and 42.46 billion yuan, respectively, up 54%, 26% year-on-year. Losses were drastically reduced in 2024. Profit for 2024-2026 was a loss of 4.34 billion yuan, a loss of 1.2 billion yuan, and a profit of 1.25 billion yuan, respectively. First coverage, giving a “Highly Recommended” investment rating.
Risk warning: Risk of R&D falling short of expectations, risk of commercialization falling short of expectations, risk of changes in payment policies, risk of increased competition, risk of changes in overseas environment, risk of not making profits in the short term.
