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大行评级|交银国际:上调信义光能评级至“买入” 光伏玻璃进入去库存周期 价格反弹可期

Rating by major banks | Bocom Intl: Upgraded the rating of Xinyi Solar to "buy" as photovoltaic glass enters destocking cycle, price rebound expected.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Nov 22, 2024 11:04  · Ratings

On November 22, Guolonghui | Bocom Intl released a report, stating that although the price of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline, the industry has achieved supply-demand balance after significant production cuts. It is expected that with continued production cuts and increased component production, glass is expected to enter a destocking cycle, with a potential price rebound. Therefore, Xinyi Solar's rating has been upgraded to "buy" and the target price has been slightly reduced from 4.09 Hong Kong dollars to 4.04 Hong Kong dollars. However, due to the larger-than-expected decline in the price of photovoltaic glass and Xinyi Solar's production being lower than expected, profit forecasts for the company for 2024 to 2026 have been reduced by 25%, 35%, and 29%, respectively. The report mentions that Xinyi Solar is expanding production while refurbishing old capacity to lower costs. In addition, under the pressure of losses, there is a growing call in the industry for supply-side reforms. It is expected that the government will introduce policies to increase energy consumption standards, expedite the clearance of photovoltaic glass supply, price recovery, and benefit companies with lower energy consumption such as Xinyi Solar. Among Xinyi Solar's existing capacity, kilns below 900 tons, which have higher energy consumption, account for only 7%, lower than Flat Glass Group's 10% and the industry average of over 20%, resulting in a lower proportion of potentially eliminated capacity. Bocom Intl also believes that Xinyi Solar's profitability in the photovoltaic power generation business is relatively stable, providing sustainable cash flow, with debt levels significantly lower than its peers in the photovoltaic glass industry. Therefore, when industry peers are struggling to expand production due to losses, the company can still profit overall and expand production against the trend, placing it in a favorable competitive position.

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