盈利预测与评级：我们预计公司2024-2026 年归母净利润分别为2.2/2.9/3.6 亿元，同比增速分别为4.2%/31.6%/26.2%，当前股价对应的PE 分别为51/39/31 倍。我们选取海思科、千红制药和健友股份为可比公司，考虑到公司核药产品线不断丰富，未来具有想象空间，首次覆盖，给于“买入”评级。Performance is under pressure in the short term. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 2.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%, and achieved net profit of 0.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.6%; 2024Q3 achieved operating income of 0.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and realized a net profit of 0.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.7%.
Short-term heparin price fluctuations affect apparent earnings. In the first three quarters of 2024, by business, 1) APIs: achieved revenue of 0.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.73%, mainly due to a decrease in the sales price of heparin sodium; 2) Nuclear medicine business: FDG injections achieved revenue of 0.312 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.33%; technetic-labeled drugs achieved revenue of 81.7875 million yuan, an increase of 4.26% year on year, mainly due to market development and increase in market share; 3) Formulation business: Nadrin injections achieved revenue of 0.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.76%; 4) Yunke Injection: achieved revenue of 0.185 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.65%. The year-on-year decrease was mainly affected by DRG and DIP policies, and was due to a decrease in hospitalized patients.
The nuclear drug product line continues to be enriched, waiting for market potential to open up. In terms of nuclear drugs, the company has a wide range of nuclide drug products, including diagnostic positron drug 18F-FDG, single-photon drug Tantalum [99mTc] labeled drugs, and other drug urea [14C] capsules. In addition, in recent years, the company has focused on building a Class 1.1 integrated drug innovation platform for radiological diagnosis and treatment, Yantai Lannacheng. It has the characteristics of innovative drug development and the world's leading nano-delivery technology. The indications include diagnostic and treatment products for various cancers such as prostate cancer, stomach cancer, colorectal cancer, nasopharyngeal cancer, etc. Some of these products have been double reported by China and the US, up to 24H1. Fluorine [18F] siruitide injections are undergoing phase III clinical trials. Fluorine [18F] seruide injections have completed phase I clinical trials. -LNC1004 injection is undergoing phase I clinical trials in China and Singapore. 177lu-LNC1008 injection, 177Lu-LNC1010 injection, 177Lu-LNC1011 injection have obtained clinical trial notices from China, and 68Ga-LNC1007 injections, 18F-LNC1007 injections, and 177lu-LNC1011 injections have obtained FDA clinical trial notices.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's net profit to be 0.22/0.29/0.36 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.2%/31.6%/26.2%, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 51/39/31 times, respectively. We selected HiCisco, Qianhong Pharmaceuticals, and Jianyou Co., Ltd. as comparable companies. Considering that the company's nuclear drug product line continues to be rich, there is room for imagination in the future, coverage for the first time, and gave it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of R&D falling short of expectations; risk of marketing falling short of expectations; risk of policies exceeding expectations
