Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the usa unexpectedly declined, indicating that non-farm data in November could rebound after a sharp slowdown in employment growth last month caused by hurricanes and strikes.

The Department of Labor reported on Thursday that for the week ending November 16, initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000, seasonally adjusted to 0.213 million, below the market expectation of 0.22 million.

This data's survey period includes the usa Veterans Day holiday, which may introduce some volatility. Despite a surge in jobless claims in early October due to the destruction caused by hurricanes Helen and Milton and a strike by workers at boeing and another aviation company, layoffs remain very low. This mitigates the impact of weak hiring on the labor market.

Initial jobless claims data covers the period in which the government conducts its business survey for non-farm payrolls in the November employment report.

Government data confirms that hurricanes Helen and Milton, along with strikes in the aviation industry, are the main reasons for the significant slowdown in employment growth in October. State employment and unemployment reports also show a continued slowdown in the labor market.

Economists estimate that the strikes and storms may have reduced last month's employment numbers by 0.1 million to 0.125 million. Non-farm payrolls in October increased by only 0.012 million, the smallest increase since December 2020, whereas September had an increase of 0.223 million.

The boeing strike ended earlier this month after workers accepted a new contract, and the hurricane-affected areas are also undergoing reconstruction. This creates a basis for at least 0.1 million job openings in November.

Next week's initial jobless claims may provide more information about the labor market conditions in November.

It is worth noting that the non-farm payroll report for November may determine whether the federal reserve will cut rates again in December, as previous data has indicated that progress in reducing inflation to its 2% target has stalled in recent months.

The federal reserve cut rates by 25 basis points earlier this month, lowering its benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The federal reserve unexpectedly made a significant cut of 50 basis points at the beginning of its easing cycle, marking the first reduction in borrowing costs since 2020.

Editor/rice