Despite announcing strong earnings, Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s (NYSE:MSGE) stock was sluggish. We think that the market might be paying attention to some underlying factors that they find to be concerning.
A Closer Look At Madison Square Garden Entertainment's Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Over the twelve months to September 2024, Madison Square Garden Entertainment recorded an accrual ratio of 0.23. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In fact, it had free cash flow of US$56m in the last year, which was a lot less than its statutory profit of US$175.7m. Madison Square Garden Entertainment's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, but it may bounce back next year, since free cash flow is often more volatile than accounting profits. Importantly, we note an unusual tax situation, which we discuss below, has impacted the accruals ratio. This would certainly have contributed to the weak cash conversion. One positive for Madison Square Garden Entertainment shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
An Unusual Tax Situation
In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Madison Square Garden Entertainment received a tax benefit of US$105m. This is meaningful because companies usually pay tax rather than receive tax benefits. The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth.
Our Take On Madison Square Garden Entertainment's Profit Performance
Madison Square Garden Entertainment's accrual ratio indicates weak cashflow relative to earnings, which perhaps arises in part from the tax benefit it received this year. If the tax benefit is not repeated, then profit would drop next year, all else being equal. Considering all this we'd argue Madison Square Garden Entertainment's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. To help with this, we've discovered 4 warning signs (3 are concerning!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Madison Square Garden Entertainment.
Our examination of Madison Square Garden Entertainment has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
