Goldwin Financial News | Guosen Securities released a research report indicating that Ctrip Group (09961) had a revenue of 15.87 billion yuan in the third quarter, up 15.5%, exceeding market expectations (year-on-year +13.9%); Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders was 5.96 billion yuan, up 21.8%, with adjusted EBITDA of 5.68 billion yuan, up 22.9%, better than market expectations (which were -2.5% and +14.4% respectively). The revenue growth during the peak tourist season improved sequentially despite a high base, highlighting the platform's leading advantages; adjusted EBITDA margin in Q3 was up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, primarily due to a low base in adjusted sales expense ratio which only increased by 1 percentage point year-on-year, indicating good marketing efficiency and continuous leverage of fixed costs.

The analysis from this institution is as follows: 1) The domestic business's market share continues to expand during the peak season, and it is expected that revenue growth will improve sequentially in the fourth quarter. 2) Outbound travel packages remain an important growth driver, continuing to outpace the industry's capacity growth. 3) The effectiveness of international market expansion is showing results, and there are plans to increase investment in the fourth quarter.

Considering the company's excellent performance in Q3 and the fact that domestic hotel prices have gradually stabilized in Q4, this institution has slightly revised upwards the company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 to 52.9/61.7/71.2 billion yuan (previously 52.4/61.3/71 billion yuan). Taking into account the exceeded expectations of other income in Q3 and a more aggressive international investment in Q4, this institution has raised the Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders to 17.4/19.7/22.9 billion yuan (previously 16.4/19.2/22.3 billion yuan), corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 18/16/14x. The company has a solid foundation, and increased investments in international platforms will empower it to become Asia's leading online travel platform in the medium term; during the public meeting, it was mentioned that by 2025, plans to expand capital return scale would be implemented to demonstrate an active stance. The bullish outlook on the company’s potential for high-end user traffic and excellent operational efficiency remains, maintaining an 'outperform the market' rating.