share_log

拯救美元可能需要“非常手段”:比特币本位?

Saving the dollar may require "extraordinary measures": bitcoin standard?

Golden10 Data ·  18:29

Whether it's the prediction of "million-dollar bitcoins" or the balance between gold and the dollar, the revolution sparked by bitcoin seems to be just beginning.

The price of bitcoin is gradually approaching the significant milestone of 0.1 million dollars. Mark Moss, the "voice of the crypto space," believes this is not just a price increase, but a "revolution" in digital assets.

Moss hosts a well-known bitcoin podcast called "The Mark Moss Show," and is regarded as a spokesperson for global digital privacy rights and for advocating mainstream consumer adoption of cryptos. In an interview, Moss pointed out that the rising debt levels of the usa government are pushing up asset prices across the board, with bitcoin becoming one of the few assets able to consistently outperform the rate of currency inflation.

"Most people expect a crash to occur... but in reality, there has been a kind of 'reverse crash'—the prices are rising so quickly that I can't maintain my previous quality of life. The result is the same as a crash: 'I can't afford the same quality of life.' But this crash is not downwards, but upwards, and that is exactly what we are seeing."

Moss further noted that what investors need to overcome in the current environment is not inflation, but the true rate of currency devaluation, which is about 10%. He also mentioned that

"If the s&p 500 index is adjusted for M2 money supply, it has not reached a new high since 2000."

"Sovereign FOMO" and million-dollar bitcoin.

Moss is an experienced bitcoin investor and macroeconomic expert. He believes that Trump positioning himself as the "bitcoin president" may drive the usa to adopt a strategic bitcoin reserve, which would trigger a "game," leading to "sovereign-level FOMO" (fear of missing out) from other countries.

He mentioned that Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming has proposed a bill aiming to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve and plans to increase the holdings by 0.2 million bitcoins annually until the total reaches 1 million. Under Trump's leadership, this plan is "very likely" to become a reality.

"If the usa does this, the G7 and G20 countries will be affected... other countries have already begun to pay attention to this matter and have started purchasing bitcoin, which has brought great upward momentum to bitcoin prices."

Regarding the long-term price of bitcoin, Moss predicts that by 2030, the price of bitcoin could reach 1 million dollars. He stated that this prediction is based on a mathematical analysis of the historical sensitivity of currency supply expansion and bitcoin to currency expansion.

He said that asset prices will rise with the expansion of money supply, and the usa Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has already informed us how much the money supply will expand by 2030. According to CBO's forecast, the usa federal budget deficit for 2020 was 1 trillion dollars, averaging 1.3 trillion dollars from 2021 to 2030.

In addition, he pointed out that small countries have quietly begun accumulating bitcoin. "It must be the case," Moss said, "I have heard that many small countries are already doing this."

What role will gold play in this?

Against the backdrop of high debt levels and rising interest rate costs, Moss believes that the usa may be forced to take "radical measures" to maintain the strong position of the dollar. He proposed two possibilities: 1) Reassess the price of gold to a certain market value level, possibly 10,000 dollars or even 20,000 dollars per ounce; 2) Transition to a "bitcoin standard".

Although Moss is optimistic about gold, he believes that the rise of bitcoin represents a real "revolution," as "bitcoin offers billions of people a way to have property." In addition to bitcoin and gold, Moss also emphasizes investing in "scarce assets," such as prime real estate.

Overall, Mos believes that bitcoin is not only a disruptor of asset classes but also a tool against currency devaluation and for reshaping the global financial system. Whether it's the prediction of "million dollar bitcoin" or the weighing of gold against the dollar, this revolution surrounding bitcoin seems to be just beginning.

Editor/ping

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment