国泰君安认为，2024年在下游需求下行压力增大的背景下，煤炭行业交出了完美的答卷，煤炭价格两轮淡季底部均较2023年同期抬升，超预期的背后反映的是2016年以来的“供给侧大周期”下稳定的供给格局，叠加4月1日实施的《煤矿安全生产条例》，继续给现有产能扎上紧箍；而需求端确定性的全社会用电量抬升，已然是当前宏观背景下最有确定性增长方向之一。而煤炭板块业绩逐步降幅收窄，龙头业绩Q2开始恢复正增长，中期分红的增加，都让煤炭板块的红利投资思路延续。In 2025, without considering policy stimulus, the certainty of the coal fundamentals is still likely to be at the forefront of all industries.
According to Zhithong Finance APP, gtja has released a research report stating that under the expectation of gradual policies, seeking 'certainty' is also an investment approach; under normal allocation, coal has higher certainty. Institutions' hold positions are already below the median of the past five years, and the risk of continued decline is minimal. Also, under the resonance of domestic and international interest rate cycles moving downwards, the logical allocation of long-term funds with high dividends remains unchanged; the gradual implementation expectation of policies means that after the 'spring new starts' in March, the possibility of demand realization is relatively low, and investment certainty may still be an investment approach; without considering policy stimulus in 2025, the certainty of coal fundamentals is still likely to be at the forefront of all industries.
Reviewing the coal market in 2024, the industry's supply and demand are surprisingly stable, and coal prices have shown great resilience.
Gtja believes that in 2024, under the increasing pressure of downstream demand decline, the coal industry produced a perfect answer. The bottom of coal prices during two rounds of off-seasons has risen compared to the same period in 2023. What lies behind the surprising outcomes reflects a stable supply pattern under the 'supply-side super cycle' since 2016, coupled with the implementation of the 'Coal Mine Safety Production Regulations' on April 1, which continues to tighten the noose around existing capacity; meanwhile, the certainty of demand has been bolstered by the uplift in national electricity consumption, which has become one of the most certain growth directions under the current macro background. The performance of the coal sector has gradually narrowed in decline, leading companies' performance began to recover with positive growth in Q2, and the increase in interim dividends continued to support the coal sector's dividend investment approach.
Looking ahead to 2025, 'stability' remains the key word for the industry, and coal prices are not afraid of slightly weakening marginal supply and demand.
Gtja stated that under the assumption of neutral policy expectations, the marginal supply and demand of coal is slightly weaker than in 2024: the core incremental supply comes from increased production in shanxi (approximately 70 million tons year-on-year). However, it is determined that the impact on actual sales will be weaker than production data. On the demand side, the demand for thermal coal may still maintain a good growth of 2.5-3% under the backdrop of weakening contributions from hydropower and new energy. The demand for non-thermal coal, without considering policy impacts, may continue to decline in steel and cement, but the downside is supported, and the marginal drag is reducing, while chemicals still maintain good growth. It is estimated that in 2025, coal supply will exceed demand by about 1.2%, slightly greater than the 0.9% in 2024, and coal prices may slightly decrease, while the bottom of 800 yuan/ton for coal prices remains clear, and certainty is still strong.
Investment advice:
The investment strategy for dividends remains the core of the sector, with the coal price central stabilizing in 2025. The profitability clarity and predictability of leading companies continues to improve. The core recommendations are for dividends: china shenhua energy (601088.SH), shaanxi coal industry (601225.SH), and china coal energy (601898.SH); new energy fund (601918.SH) for integrated coal and electricity operation is seen as stable; in the context of expected policy enhancement, the focus remains on the coking coal sector, recommending leading companies like huaibei mining holdings (600985.SH), pingdingshan tianan coal mining (601666.SH), anhui hengyuan coal industry and electricity power (600971.SH), and shanxi coking coal energy group (000983.SZ); for 2025, in light of enhanced policies, recommended companies likely to show performance elasticity include yankuang energy (600188.SH), shanxi coal international energy group (600546.SH), and shan xi hua yang group new energy (600348.SH).
Risk warning: downstream demand may underperform expectations, steel prices may drop significantly, and import scales may exceed expectations.