营收端： 2024Q3 实现单季营收入101.0 亿元， 同比/ 环比分别为+18.4%/+24.5%。其中2024Q3 当季汽车业务收入为88.0 亿元，同比/环比分别为12.1%/+29.0%。同环比增加主要由于交付量的增加所致。2024Q3 单车ASP 由24Q2 的22.57 万元下降至18.90 万元。其他业务方面，2024Q3 营收达到13.1 亿元，同比/环比分别为+90.7%/+1.1%；同比增加主要由于与大众汽车集团进行平台与软件战略以及电子电气架构技术战略合作有关的技术研发服务收入增加所致。Event: The company released its 2024Q3 financial report: Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 24.76 billion yuan, +40.5% year over year, of which: 2024Q3 revenue was 10.1 billion yuan, +18.4%/+24.5% year over month, respectively.
The gross margin of the 2024Q3 automotive business was +8.6%, and +14.7 pts/+2.2 pts year-over-year, respectively. Non-GAAP net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was -4.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease; 2024Q3 non-GAAP net profit was -1.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease.
The gross margin exceeded expectations and the quality of operations continued to be optimized
Revenue side: 2024Q3 achieved quarterly revenue of 10.1 billion yuan, +18.4%/+24.5% year-over-year, respectively. Among them, the automobile business revenue for the 2024Q3 quarter was 8.8 billion yuan, or 12.1%/+29.0% year-over-year, respectively. The year-on-month increase was mainly due to increased deliveries. The 2024Q3 bicycle ASP dropped from 0.2257 million yuan in 24Q2 to 0.189 million yuan. In other business areas, 2024Q3's revenue reached 1.31 billion yuan, +90.7%/+1.1% year over month, respectively; the year-on-year increase was mainly due to increased revenue from technology R&D services related to platform and software strategy and electronic and electrical architecture technology strategic cooperation with Volkswagen Group.
Profit side: In terms of gross profit, the gross profit of the 2024Q3 automobile business was 0.76 billion yuan; the gross margin of the automobile business was +8.6%, +14.7 pts/+2.2 pts year-over-year, respectively. The total gross profit of 2024Q3 was 1.54 billion yuan, and the gross margin of 2024Q3 was +15.3%, +17.9 pts/+1.3 pts year-over-year, respectively. We determine that the reason for the increase in the overall gross margin of 2024Q3 is 1) the high gross profit margin of VW cooperation-related revenue due to lower costs and improved model product portfolios.
Steady cost improvement, positive performance outlook
Cost side: 2024Q3 Xiaopeng's R&D cost was 1.63 billion yuan, +25.1%/+11.3% YoY.
The 2024Q3 R&D cost rate was 16.2%, +0.9 pts/-1.9 pts y/y. 2024Q3 sales and management costs were 1.63 billion yuan, or -3.5%/+3.8% year-over-year, respectively. The 2024Q3 sales and management rate was 16.2%, -3.7pts/-3.2pts YoY/Month-on-month.
Channel side: As of 2024Q3, Xiaopeng has 639 sales centers, covering 206 cities. Sales centers increased by 28 compared to 2024Q2.
Cash: As of 24Q3, Xiaopeng's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments and cash deposits totaled $35.75 billion, a decrease of -1.58 billion yuan compared to 24Q2, and short-term liquidity risk was weak.
Future outlook: The company expects the 2024Q4 car sales volume to be 0.087 million to 0.091 million vehicles; the year-on-year range is +44.6% to +51.3%; the corresponding revenue is about 15.3 billion yuan to 16.2 billion yuan, and the year-on-year range is +17.2% to +24.1%.
Low-cost smart driving mass production strong product cycle begins
Low-cost smart driving mass production, leading the new transformation of AI smart driving. In October 2024, Xiaopeng announced a pure visual smart driving solution at the smart driving technology sharing conference. The pure visual smart driving solution with light radar and light map will greatly reduce costs; the solution is equipped with AI Hawkeye Vision, which increases the sensing distance by 125% and the recognition speed by 40%. The Xiaopeng P7+ became the first high-end smart driving product in China to be devolved to less than 0.2 million yuan, and all subsequent models will be equipped with advanced smart driving as standard. We believe that the development of AI technology will accelerate the arrival of an intelligent inflection point for users; Xiaopeng is expected to accelerate the smart driving penetration rate of 0.1-0.2 million in the mainstream car market through low-cost smart driving solutions, and lead to an increase in sales.
New models continue to sell well, and a strong product cycle has started. Since the first M03 model in the Xiaopeng Mona series was launched in August, sales have exceeded 10,000 for 2 consecutive months; the new model P7+ of Xiaopeng's main brand went on sale on November 7, breaking through the 0.01 million unit in just 12 minutes. Furthermore, Xiaopeng expects to launch 4 new products and various facelifted models in 2025. We believe that Xiaopeng is starting a strong product cycle and entering a smooth phase of rapid development, which is expected to lead to further growth in sales and performance.
Investment advice: We are optimistic that Xiaopeng Motor will experience a double increase in performance and valuation driven by the model cycle, organizational innovation, and intelligent beta. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be $41.32/96.67/126.15 billion, respectively, and net profit to mother of -5.43/-0.94/5.58 billion, corresponding to the closing price of Hong Kong stocks at HK$50.35 per share on November 20, 2024 (HKD/RMB exchange rate 1:0.92), PB 2.8/2.9/2.5 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: The boom in the automotive industry falls short of expectations; the penetration of electric vehicles falls short of expectations; market and channel expansion falls short of expectations; market competition intensifies, etc.
