维持公司“增 持”评级，上调目标价至 168.29 港元，对应 2025 年7xP/E。公司2024Q3 营收126.84 亿元人民币（单位下同），同比+7.54%，经调整后净利润44.43 亿元，同比+34.49%。考虑到公司风险指标改善和融资成本下降，调整2024-2026 经调整净利润为62/69/79 亿元（调前56/62/71 亿元），同比40%/11%/15%。维持公司“增持”评级，上调目标价为168.29 港元，对应2025 年7xP/E。Introduction to this report:
Reduced financing costs and improved risk are still the main reasons for the increase in performance, and the continued introduction of repurchase plans shows the company's confidence.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining the company's “Overweight” rating, the target price was raised to HK$168.29, corresponding to 7xP/E in 2025. The company's 2024Q3 revenue was RMB 12.684 billion (same unit), +7.54% YoY, and adjusted net profit was 4.443 billion yuan, +34.49% YoY. The adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 was 6.2/6.9/7.9 billion yuan (previously adjusted 5.6/6.2/7.1 billion yuan), which is 40%/11%/15% compared to the same period. Maintaining the company's “gain” rating, the target price was raised to HK$168.29, corresponding to 7xP/E in 2025.
Reduced financing costs and improved risk are still the main drivers of profit growth. The company's 2024Q3 revenue was 4.37 billion yuan, up 2.1% year on year. Revenue growth was mainly due to 1) financing revenue from credit-driven services increased 27% year over year to 1.74 billion yuan. The increase in financing revenue stemmed from the increase in the balance sheet due to the company's issuance of more ABS; 2) referral service fees in platform services increased 226% year over year to 0.763 billion yuan, mainly due to the increase in the size of the company's ICE business.
In terms of profit, 2024Q3's adjusted net profit for the single quarter was 1.825 billion, 55% year-on-year. The increase in profit was mainly due to the expansion of the take-rate. The company's 2024Q3 take rate (non-GAAP net profit/average balance on loan balance) reached 5.9% (3.3% for 2023Q3 and 4.4% for 2024Q2). The continued expansion of the take rate is mainly due to the continuous decline in the company's capital costs and the improvement in risk, and the company's current financing costs continue to fall, reaching a record low. In terms of risk indicators, the 2024Q3 first-day overdue rate of 4.6% (Q2 was 4.8%) and the 30-day recovery rate of 87.4% (Q1 was 86.3%) have all improved.
Qualitative growth will be the core of the company's future development, and the company's push for a repurchase plan shows confidence. The company's 2024Q3 credit investment scale (excluding risk management SaaS services) was 82.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9% and an increase of 13.1% month-on-month. The company's credit investment remains cautious in the context of uncertainty in the macro environment. It is expected that in the future, the company will pay more attention to risk management and optimization of operational efficiency, which in turn will lead to profit growth. Furthermore, the company introduced a new repurchase plan based on the previous repurchase plan of 0.35 billion US dollars. Within 12 months from January 1, 2025, the company is authorized to repurchase American depository shares or Class A common shares with a total value of not more than 0.45 billion US dollars. Continued share repurchases demonstrate the company's confidence.
Catalysts: Improved asset quality and increased loan issuance.
Risk warning: The economy falls short of expectations; the non-performing rate has increased dramatically.
