Senior csi commodity equity index analyst and founder of CPM Group, Jeffrey Christian, stated that since Trump won the election, the price of gold has declined slightly, but the significant uncertainty surrounding Trump's second term means gold will move towards new highs.

Christian expects that by the end of January next year, the price of gold will reach historic highs. He speculated in a recent speech to clients that the price of gold may remain steady for several months and then reach a cyclical peak by 2026, meaning that in the first year of Trump's presidency, the price of gold will hit new highs multiple times.

Christian stated that the potential rise will be driven by the high uncertainty of the elected president's policies, leading investors to flock to gold, silver, US bonds, and other defensive assets for safe-haven purposes.

Christian mentioned that when discussing Trump's proposed policies: "There are inherent contradictions in what Trump says, bringing a series of new uncertainties, prompting investors to pause. When they are uncertain or worried about the economic outlook, they will buy US dollars, US bonds, gold, and silver."

Economists point out that some of Trump's economic policies may have effects opposite to what he claims. For example, experts believe that Trump's plan to impose high tariffs on imported products could lead to inflation, a claim countered by Trump.

He implemented tariffs during his first term in 2017, but inflation did not rise significantly. Economists state that his new tariff plans are much more comprehensive.

Christian emphasizes CPM Group's forecast that the US economy may experience a recession in the next 24 months. He added that if Trump's economic policies are notably contractionary, the economic decline may come faster or be more severe.

Christian said, "The statements made by President Trump and his assistants are internally contradictory. You can draw the conclusion from some of the things they said that they will significantly cut the budget, reduce government spending, which will be highly contractionary."

However, most economists still believe that the USA is moving towards a soft landing, as the inflation trend approaches the Federal Reserve's 2% target and economic growth remains stable. The October CPI annual rate is 2.6%, in line with economists' expectations. At the same time, according to the latest GDPNow reading from the Atlanta Federal Reserve, it is expected that the actual GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of the USA will reach 2.6% year-on-year.

Editor/Rocky