On November 20, comex gold first fell and then rose, closing at $2654.1 per ounce, up 0.88%. The domestic SHFE gold night session fluctuated and rose, closing at 615.24 yuan/gram, up 0.67%.

Geopolitically, British media reported that Ukraine used for the first time the "Shadow of the Storm" cruise missile provided by the United Kingdom to attack targets within Russia, boosting safe-haven assets, causing gold to rise for three consecutive days and reaching a one-week high. However, Federal Reserve officials expressed hawkish views. Federal Reserve hawkish Director Bauman stated that inflation seems to have stalled, leaning towards cautiously advancing rate cuts. Federal Reserve Director Cook believes that if the job market continues to soften, there may be a need for more rapid rate cuts, but as the job market remains solid, it is expected to only cool gradually. Federal Reserve Director and Vice Chairman responsible for financial regulatory affairs Barr stated that there will be no major policy decisions made before Trump takes office and does not intend to make significant policy decisions before Trump takes office. The market reduced bets on rate cuts, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December decreased from 58.9% to 52.3%, which may to some extent constrain the subsequent rebound of gold. It is expected that gold will continue to follow a strong trend as long as geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, but in the case of weakened expectations for rate cuts in December, it may be difficult to reach previous highs by the end of the year.

(Source: WIND, Everbright Futures Research Institute)

Written by: Shi Yueming

Professional Qualification Certificate Number: F03097365

Investment Advisory Certificate Number: Z0017563

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