According to Zhitong Finance APP, Huachuang Securities published a research report stating that looking to 2025, service consumption is welcoming a rapid recovery with a reversal, a "magnificent" fundamental change and valuation recovery, establishing a trend. In 2024, the industry's price reductions stimulating demand will have minimal effect, with revenue growth in Q3 not resulting in profit increases, affecting corporate profit margins. It is expected that entering Q4, transaction volume and customer flow will enter a recovery period, with intermittent positive growth. Looking across 2025's commercial retail, social services, and the e-commerce local living sector, the sector faces: 1) a slowdown in online penetration growth, with the penetration of standard goods online reaching high levels, intensifying price competition in e-commerce, and difficulty optimizing brand promotional costs; while offline rents are decreasing, and customer traffic is warming up, providing value space for quality consumption, experiential consumption, and spiritual consumption; 2) active policy implementation, state subsidies for upgrading, and local consumption vouchers are all promoting offline consumption, with offline dining and retail welcoming a recovery in fundamentals following an increase in customer flow.

Huachuang Securities' main views are as follows:

1. Grasp the reforms in dining, supermarkets, hotel and tourism, as well as the continuous recovery of Meituan and OTAs. Consumption is rebounding in first-tier cities, with service consumption as the primary stimulating direction, and customer traffic in dining and supermarkets is expected to improve, with catering enterprises actively exploring a second growth curve and accelerating the incubation of sub-brands; focusing on resilience in dining operation profit margins, controlling the decline speed of average spending per customer, maintaining a good turnover rate, and obtaining more stable operating profit margins through menu adjustments and operational model optimizations. The recommendation includes yum china and haidilao which are operating steadily and continuously improving shareholder returns, and suggests paying attention to tongqinglou (605108.SH) still in the expansion phase of its stores and dpc dash.

The supermarket industry is undergoing adjustments of existing stores, forming a differentiated position with "quality-price ratio" consumption and online low-price competition, alongside the emphasis on immediate retail in FMCG categories, with offline retail expected to see significant changes. The core focus is on the adjustment effects and collaboration opportunities within the industry chain, with recommendations for yonghui superstores. In terms of internet plus-related, pay attention to the competitive landscape and trends in operating profit margins: e-commerce GMV competition is intensifying, with merchants' profits shrinking, and significant short-term pressure on platforms' Take rate; a core focus will be on changes in consumer goods revenue growth and sales expense ratios, as well as the impact of changes in overseas business environments on strategy; compared to e-commerce, Meituan holds a more advantageous position in the local living competitive landscape, with Meituan's delivery operations showing resilience, and in-store services have a strong base among small and medium businesses, with growth in immediate retail driven by transaction volume confirming a gradual scale advantage, recommending Meituan. Ctrip maintains a steady trend domestically, with international business driving growth.

2. Ongoing policy efforts and emphasis on maternal and child welfare, human services, and hospitality. For maternal and child care, recommending Kidswant, and suggesting attention to Runben shares; the labor service sector has strong employment recruitment attributes, being more of a late-cycle component, with policy stimulation → market recovery → financial and operational recovery all having a time lag; expected recovery prioritizes over fundamentals. Domestic tourism demand is booming, supporting medium to long-term growth. Under consumer stimulation, price pressures are expected to ease, with anticipated continuation of operational management differentiation; the strategic status of inbound tourism is improving, benefiting the tourism industry chain, especially for tourist destinations and Ctrip Group with inbound tourism traffic.

3. In the overseas industry chain, there are opportunities amidst crises, with a focus on platform-type companies and IP going Global. Enterprises are adjusting their supply chains and experiencing valuation recovery, paying attention to changes in tariff policies and the speed of supply chain adjustments. Recommendations include platform-type companies pdd holdings and zhejiang china commodities city group.

4. High quality growth, upgraded competition, management capability and external growth become highlights. Cosmetics: Competition has gradually shifted from channels and product competitiveness to brand competitiveness. Brands are increasingly focusing on the "dual high quadrant" of "high product quality-to-price ratio" and "high brand strength." The difference is that international brands mainly improve the former, while domestic brands focus on enhancing the latter. Recommended companies include giant biotechnology and proya cosmetics (603605.SH). The upstream supply of medical beauty is increasing, and the mid-stream urgently needs profits; the main theme of growth still looks at new product increments. It is recommended to focus on jinbo biotechnology, kedi, imeik technology development (300896.SZ), jiangsu wuzhong pharmaceutical development (600200.SH), and shanghai haohai biological technology (688366.SH).

Risk warning: The pace of policy implementation is slower than expected; negative impacts from fluctuations in China-U.S. relations; the recovery of consumer and entrepreneur confidence is less than expected; tariff calculations are only for scenario analysis and may have errors, and do not represent predictions of the actual performance of the company; there are uncertainties regarding the actual implementation of tariffs, etc.