1、国内饲料：高质量提份额，猪料、水产料景气度有望边际提升。我们认为，1）水产料：普水及特水鱼目前存塘偏低，随国内消费活力有望持续释放，我们预计25 年水产价格或存支撑，在饲料成本压力有限、养殖户盈利边际向好、投苗有望边际提升的背景下，公司水产料有望获得更多销量增长及利润释放空间。同时据通威农牧，3Q24 加州鲈/生鱼均价同比分别+25.5%/+14.7%，我们预计养殖户反季节投苗或相对积极，有望对25 年上半年特水料形成一定支撑；2）猪料：24 年生猪养殖散户加快退出，存栏下降导致猪料行业竞争激烈，1-3Q24 全国猪料产量同比下滑6.8%，同时市场化猪料空间持续萎缩，下滑幅度或大于猪料整体水平。我们预计随存栏边际回升，25 年猪料下游需求有望边际改善，公司以优质的产品、专业的服务体系为抓手，有望持续提升市场份额；3）禽料：禽料终端蛋白需求或稳中有升，竞争格局相对清晰，公司发力蛋禽等高吨利子赛道有望稳健发展。The company's recent situation
Recently, we invited the management of Haida Group to attend the 2024 China Finance Annual Strategy Meeting. The company exchanged views with the market on feed going overseas and domestic feed and breeding business prospects. We believe that as a feed leader in the entire industry chain, the company is expected to continue to grow beyond the limit by increasing its share of domestic quality, accelerating overseas layout, and making steady profits in its farming business.
reviews
1. Domestic feed: High quality increases its share, and the popularity of pig feed and aquatic products is expected to increase marginally. We believe that 1) Aquatic materials: Aquatic products are currently low, and domestic consumption activity is expected to continue to be released. We expect fishery prices or savings support for 25 years. Against the backdrop of limited feed cost pressure, farmers' marginal profit margins, and a marginal increase in seedling investment, the company's aquatic materials are expected to gain more room for sales growth and profit release. At the same time, according to Tongwei Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, the average price of California perch/raw fish was +25.5%/+14.7% year on year in 3Q24. We expect farmers to be anti-season or relatively active, which is expected to provide some support for special water in the first half of '25; 2) Pig feed: Retail pig farmers withdrew rapidly in 24, and the decline in storage led to intense competition in the pig feed industry. 1-3Q24 national pig production fell 6.8% year on year. At the same time, the market-based pig feed space continued to shrink, and the decline may be greater than the overall level of pig feed. We expect that with a marginal recovery in storage, downstream demand for pig feed is expected to improve marginally in 25 years. With high-quality products and a professional service system as a starting point, the company is expected to continue to increase its market share; 3) Poultry: Demand for terminal protein in poultry may rise steadily. The competitive pattern is relatively clear, and the company is expected to develop steadily on high-tonnage interest tracks such as eggs and poultry.
2. Overseas feed: Accelerate the layout to open up room for growth, and have obvious advantages in technology, service and management. We believe that 1) Overseas feed space is vast: According to Alltech, the global and Chinese feed production in '23 was 1.29/0.26 billion tons, and the per capita animal protein consumption level in the seven Southeast Asian countries in '21 was only the level of China in '05, which is about 63% of China's in '21, and there is plenty of room for feed to go overseas; 2) the company's overseas trips are expected to reduce the impact: the company is expected to gradually complete the core production capacity layout in Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa, where demand for high-quality protein is strong, and is expected to export domestic “gold+seeds+seedlings” horns A mature system combines “endogenous+extension” to accelerate the increase in overseas market share. 1H24's overseas feed export sales increased by more than 30% year-on-year, and 3Q24 sales and profits continued to grow well. We expect that with technological transformation and the expansion of supporting services overseas, overseas profits are expected to continue to grow faster than sales in the future.
3. Breeding business: The pig breeding business is expected to achieve stable profits, and aquaculture is progressing steadily. We believe that 1) pig farming: the asset-light platform-based farming model of purchasing piglet packages from outside the company is gradually being implemented, and is expected to achieve stable profits in 25 years; 2) Aquaculture: The scale of raw fish farming is expected to shrink to a reasonable level in 25 years. Compared with farmers, factory shrimp farming has a differentiated competitive advantage over farmers, and is expected to advance steadily.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Keeping the profit forecast unchanged, the current stock price corresponds to 18/16 times P/E for 24/25. Keep the outperforming industry rating and target price of 62 yuan unchanged, corresponding to 23/21 times P/E in 24/25, with 33% upside.
risks
Aquatic product prices are sluggish, industry competition is intensifying, and hedging risks.
