国内业务加速交付。截至3Q24，公司总体在运营面积环比净增1.6 万平至64.7 万平，总签约面积环比增加1.6 万平至60.0 万平，签约率同比环比基本持平在92.7%；预签约率同比提升3.1ppt 至79.2%，环比+2.6ppt。受益AI 需求，公司3Q24 国内数据中心新增使用面积超过2.5 万平，国内单季度新增订单共计56MW。国内+海外当季新增上架面积1.9 万平，整体上架率同比+2.5ppt 至74.4%，环比+1.1ppt。公司在国内核心区位布局超大规模数据中心，随着国内云厂商资本开支上升，我们认为公司将平衡资本开支与收入，对国内项目选择性推进。根据公司指引，2025 年国内净新增上架面积同比持平在约6 万平。3Q24 adjusted EBITDA increased 15% year over year, in line with market expectations
GDS announced results for the third quarter of 2024: revenue +17.7% yoy to 2.966 billion yuan, +4.9% month-on-month; adjusted EBITDA +15.0% to 1.296 billion yuan, -1.3% month-on-month; adjusted EBITDA rate -1.0ppt to 43.7% yoy, -2.7ppt, in line with market expectations.
Development trends
Accelerate delivery of domestic business. As of 3Q24, the company's overall operating area had a net increase of 0.016 million square meters month-on-month to 0.647 million square, and the total contract area increased by 0.016 million square meters month-on-month to 0.6 million square meters. The contract rate remained basically flat at 92.7% month-on-month; the pre-contract rate increased by 3.1 ppt to 79.2% year over year, +2.6ppt compared to month. Benefiting from AI demand, the company's 3Q24 domestic data center added more than 0.025 million square meters of usage area, and the total number of new domestic orders in a single quarter was 56MW. Domestic and overseas sales added 0.019 million square meters during the quarter. The overall listing rate was +2.5ppt to 74.4% year over year, and +1.1ppt compared to the previous month. The company has deployed large-scale data centers in domestic core locations. As the capital expenditure of domestic cloud vendors rises, we believe that the company will balance capital expenditure and revenue, and selectively advance domestic projects. According to the company's guidelines, the domestic net new listing area remained flat at about 0.06 million year-on-year in 2025.
Overseas revenue and EBITDA contributions are growing rapidly. Looking at the subregion, domestic revenue in 3Q24 was +6.1% yoy to 2.62 billion yuan, +1.6% month-on-month; adjusted EBITDA was +3.6% yoy to 1.205 billion yuan, -2.3% month-on-month; corresponding to the adjusted EBITDA rate -1.1ppt to 46.0% yoy and -1.8ppt month-on-month. We believe that the decline in the EBITDA rate was mainly due to fluctuations in electricity costs. The company's 3Q24 overseas revenue increased 636.7% year over year to 0.363 billion yuan, +42.1% month on month; adjusted EBITDA changed from negative to positive to 0.091 billion yuan, +14.9% month on month; corresponding adjusted EBITDA rate changed from negative to positive to 25.0%, -5.9ppt.
We believe that the rapid growth in overseas performance is mainly due to continued high market demand in Southeast Asia.
The second round of overseas financing has been implemented, and capital expenditure guidelines have been raised. As of 3Q24, the company is operating 129 MW overseas; 320 MW is under construction; 103 MW is expected to be on the shelf within 18 months; in advance, the company reserves 747 MW; on the demand side, the 3Q24 contract has a net month-on-month increase of 43 MW to 431 MW, adding 34 MW of contracted capacity and 38 MW of reserved capacity in Batam, and plans to deploy data centers in Thailand. The company is expected to develop a data center park with a total IT capacity of about 120 MW in Bangkok. On October 29, the company announced that the international business received another 1 billion US dollars in equity financing, with a cumulative total of 1.672 billion US dollars in the two rounds of overseas financing, which strongly supports the pace of overseas expansion. According to the company's announcement, with the implementation of the second round of financing, overseas business will also be released in Table 1. For details of the profit forecast for the exam, see Chart 3. The company's 2024 domestic capital expenditure guideline was raised from 2.5 billion yuan to 3 billion yuan, and the overseas capital expenditure guideline was raised from 4 billion yuan to 8 billion yuan.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Maintain outperforming industry ratings. The 2024/25 revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts remain largely unchanged. The company accelerated domestic/overseas delivery and raised the target price by 33% to $24 (considering the potential plan published by GDSI and switched to SOTP, based on 10x 2024e domestic EBITDA and 20x2026e overseas EBITDA, 8% discount rate), with 22% upward space.
risks
Downstream demand fell short of expectations; overseas expansion fell short of expectations.
