Regarding gold investment, there seems to always be an eternal question: "Can it still be bought?"

During the previous period when gold prices continued to rise, this question was widely raised by investors; and during the stage when gold prices experienced a correction, investors were also hesitant about whether it was the right time to enter the market. Now, as the gold market gradually stabilizes, discussions about whether it is appropriate to purchase gold will continue.

From recent trends, gold has experienced fluctuations reminiscent of a rollercoaster ride. According to Wind data, the gold pullback began on October 30 and gradually stabilized by November 15, with a decline of 7.68% in the range. As of press time, COMEX gold futures are quoted at $2641.8 per ounce, which is approximately a 5% decrease from the high at the end of October.

Are people still buying gold? Some investors believe, "The correction in gold is just the right opportunity to enter the market." "When the gold price falls, I will enter the market." While others say, "Under bearish conditions, gold no longer possesses investment value." From the data, taking the Bosera Gold ETF as an example, from October 30 to November 19, the fund shares decreased by 0.241 billion shares. Many investors still choose to withdraw.

Nevertheless, most institutional players remain bullish on the long-term trend of gold, although in the short term, there may be fluctuations due to risk aversion sentiments and policy expectations. However, geopolitical situations and the global trend of declining interest rates provide support for gold prices, and the long-term driving force for gold remains unchanged.

Some investors have already exited during the gold pullback cycle.

Although saying, "It's a good time to enter during a decline," investors are "still very honest in their actions."

Specifically, there are a total of 20 gold-related etfs in the all market, of which 16 saw shareholding declines between October 30 and November 19. The Bosera Gold ETF had the largest decrease, with a drop of 0.241 billion shares in just 20 days. The China Asset Gold ETF followed closely, with a decrease of 0.197 billion shares.

The Yongying CSI Hong Kong and Shenzhen Gold Industry Stocks ETF, ICBC Gold ETF, and E Fund Gold ETF decreased by 54 million shares, 23.4 million shares, and 18.9 million shares respectively. A total of 7 gold-related etfs saw a reduction of more than ten million shares.

However, amidst the gold correction, there are still 4 related etfs that experienced an increase in shareholding, such as the China Asset CSI Hong Kong and Shenzhen Gold Industry Stocks ETF, which grew by 9 million shares from the end of October until now. The Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF, Southern Shanghai Gold ETF, and Harvest Shanghai Gold ETF saw smaller increases of 2.7 million shares, 1.4 million shares, and 0.6 million shares respectively.

Most gold-themed funds have yielded positive returns this year.

In terms of performance, due to the gold price correction, many gold-related funds saw their net values decline accordingly.

There are a total of 30 gold-themed funds in the all market (calculated based on different share classes), all of which have experienced a decline in net value since the gold correction (from October 30 to November 19). The largest decline in the range was seen in the E Fund Gold Theme A RMB, with a drop of 7.73%. Eleven funds tracking the CSI Hong Kong Gold Index, such as the Yongying CSI Hong Kong Gold Industry Stocks etf, the Guotai CSI Hong Kong Gold Industry Stocks etf, the Huaxia CSI Hong Kong Gold Industry Stocks etf, and the ICBC CSI Hong Kong Gold Industry Stocks etf, all had declines of over 6%.

Other qdii funds like Harvest Gold (QDII-FOF-LOF) and Nuohua Global Gold saw net value declines of 4.80% and 4.67% respectively.

Even with the recent correction, looking at year-to-date returns, most gold-themed funds have still achieved positive results. For instance, both the E Fund Gold ETF and China Asset Gold ETF have seen net value increases of over 26% this year, with the Bosera Gold ETF, Huaan Gold ETF, Huaxia Gold ETF, ICBC Gold ETF, and other 7 funds having increases of over 25%, and another 10 funds with increases exceeding 20%.

However, this year, 9 gold-themed funds have reported negative net values, including the GF CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Gold Industry Stock Link A, Huaan CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Gold Industry Stock ETF, and Huaxia CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Gold Industry Stock Link A, with net value declines exceeding 10%.

Gold still holds investment value.

Returning to the initial question, is it still possible to buy gold.

Zheshang Securities' financial engineering research report points out the investment logic of gold. They believe that gold, as the highest level of currency, can be understood as an opposing asset to the credit currency system. When the credit currency system suffers negative shocks, it may catalyze the rise in gold prices. Whether it’s real interest rates or the usd, their correlation with gold trends can essentially be understood as a change in the trend of dollar credit, and ignoring the changes in dollar credit while directly relying on historical statistics may lead to erroneous conclusions.

Regarding investment opportunities in gold, Zheshang Securities believes that Trump's policy proposals are inclined towards larger-scale fiscal expansion to support the economy, which means the usa economy may still maintain good performance, thereby hindering the downward trend of inflation. Under the "wide fiscal + re-inflation" combination, pressure on usa interest expenses may further increase, thus raising the long-term deficit center. This could continuously worsen the pressure on dollar credit, thereby supporting a long-term strengthening of gold.

They found that the pace of global central banks accumulating gold significantly leads the expansion of usa debt scale, indicating that global central banks' expectations on dollar credit may be one of the important factors determining whether they purchase gold. Therefore, against the background of possible further acceleration of usa debt expansion, global central banks’ demand for gold may further increase, continuing to be an important driving force for the gold bull market.

In the short term, after Trump was elected as president of the usa, gold weakened in fluctuation, primarily due to strong dollar suppression and potential fiscal contraction concerns. However, they determine that the current strong dollar trading may be nearing an end, and the "government efficiency department" led by Musk may lack real power. Proposals such as streamlining government departments may face significant resistance, and before any actual exceedance expectations materialize, the impact on gold prices may be limited. The expansion of deficit and accumulation of debt under the backdrop of "wide fiscal + re-inflation" is a more definite trading clue.

Therefore, Zheshang Securities believes that the current phase of adjustment presents a good allocation opportunity and deserves active attention.

The research reports from zheshang indicate that the pullback in gold prices is mainly due to the usa election events/expectations and short-term economic data catalysts. Current gold prices may have partially or completely reflected the corresponding marginal changes, and a bottom range has emerged; at the same time, the fundamental logic supporting continued upward movement in gold prices still holds.

Therefore, considering that the current disruptive factors may have been fully incorporated into expectations, gold prices are expected to complete a rebound as events + sentiment's bearish factors are exhausted. Additionally, the logic for rising gold prices is likely to continue to be catalyzed during the Fed's interest rate cut cycle + the US economic recession cycle, and central banks increasing their reserves amid 'de-dollarization' is expected to provide strong bottom support for gold prices, maintaining a 'recommended' rating for the gold industry.

Goldman Sachs also stated that, influenced by central bank purchases and US interest rate cuts, gold will rise to a record level next year. Goldman Sachs ranks gold as one of the hottest commodity trades in 2025 and states that during Donald Trump's presidency, gold prices may continue to rise.

Analyst Daan Struyven stated in a report and reiterated that by December 2025, gold prices will reach the target of $3,000 per ounce. They indicated that the structural driving factor for this prediction is the increasing demand from central banks, while as the Fed cuts interest rates, inflows into exchange-traded funds (etf) will bring cyclical boosts.

This article is reprinted from 'Cai Lian Society,' edited by Jiang Yuanhua of Zhongtong Finance.