In early European trading, reports indicated that Russian President Putin is willing to discuss a ceasefire in Ukraine with US President-elect Trump, initially viewed optimistically by the market. However, according to CCTV News, British media reported Ukraine's first use of the 'Shadow of the Storm' cruise missile provided by the UK to attack targets within Russia, the news boosted gold prices for three consecutive days to reach a one-week high. The US dollar stopped falling and rebounded, US bonds initially rose but turned downwards due to dampened comments from Federal Reserve officials and a failed 20-year bond auction. Bitcoin broke through the $0.094 million milestone for the first time, reaching a historic high.Its price has soared to a historic high, closely related to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Gold rose for the third consecutive day to reach a one-week high, as the US dollar stopped falling and rebounded. US bond prices initially rose, but turned downward due to Federal Reserve officials' cautious remarks and a failed 20-year bond auction. Bitcoin broke through the $0.094 million milestone for the first time, setting a new record high.

Safe-haven sentiment weighed on US stocks in early trading, with Nasdaq falling by almost 1.4% at one point and the semiconductor index dropping over 2.1%. However, some investors feared missing out on Nvidia's positive financial report which led to a 'FOMO' sentiment triggering a V-shaped rebound in US stocks. Post-market, Nvidia announced its earnings; although last quarter's revenue exceeded analysts' expectations, the mid-point of this quarter's guidance did not meet the high-end expectations of buyers. From the stock price performance, investors seem to feel that such guidance is not impressive enough, leading to Nvidia's stock price falling by nearly 4.8% after-hours.

Fed hawkish board member Bowman stated that inflation progress appears to have stalled, leaning towards cautiously moving forward with rate cuts. Fed board member Cook believes that if the job market continues to soften, it may require the Fed to cut rates more quickly; as the job market remains robust, it is expected to gradually cool off. Fed board member and vice-chair of financial regulatory affairs Barr stated that major policies will not be formulated before Trump leaves, with no intention to implement major policies before Trump's inauguration. Traders reduced rate cut bets, with the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in December by the Fed dropping from 58.9% to 52.3%.

In terms of economic data, the UK's October CPI inflation accelerated, rising 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding the previous 1.7% and analyst expectations of 2.2%, surpassing the Bank of England's 2% target level. Traders reduced rate cut bets, expecting a 60 basis point rate cut in 2025, which reduced by 6 basis points from Tuesday's expectations, with the 10-year UK bond yield rising more than 2 basis points. Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden stated that the October inflation data was only slightly above expectations, and if the uncertainty in the UK economy decreases in the coming months, he will consider supporting faster rate cuts.

Driven by wage levels in Germany, wage growth in the euro area accelerated to 5.4% in the third quarter, marking the largest increase in twenty-five years. While the market does not expect this to stop the ECB from continuing rate cuts in December, it will test the bank's resolve and depress market expectations of rate cuts for next year. ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of Greece Stournaras stated that ECB policies have been successful in combating high inflation. It is expected that the euro area will achieve the 2% inflation target at the beginning of 2025.

The European Central Bank warned in its financial stability assessment that trade frictions have intensified the risks to the euro area economy and may increase the fragility of the financial system. The focus of macroeconomic risks has shifted from high inflation to weaker-than-expected growth, as geopolitical uncertainties and global trade tensions have raised the possibility of tail risks. Against a backdrop of increasing uncertainty and high asset valuations, given the concentration of risks in the financial system and high asset valuations, risk sentiment may suddenly reverse significantly.

At the beginning of the U.S. stock market, the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict raised risk aversion and pressured the stock market. The Nasdaq fell nearly 1.4% at the opening, the S&P 500 fell nearly 1%, and the Dow fell over 194 points or 0.4% at one point. The chip sector index fell over 2.1%. Towards the end of the trading session, some investors feared missing out on the positive earnings news from NVIDIA, prompting a sharp rebound in U.S. stocks, which closed near the day's highs. Various sectors experienced mixed gains and losses, with strong performances in healthcare, energy, and raw materials, while the non-essential consumer sector suffered the most from Targe's 21.41% decline, dragging down the losses. Investors sold off tech stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks, with the technology sector lagging behind.

• Only the Nasdaq fell among the three major U.S. stock indices. The S&P 500 index closed up 0.13 points, unchanged at 5917.11. The Dow, closely tied to the economic cycle, rose 139.53 points, up 0.32%, to 43408.47. The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, fell 21.33 points, down 0.11%, to 18966.14. The Nasdaq 100 index fell by 0.08%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech sector stocks, fell by 0.47%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, rose by 0.03%. The VIX fear index rose by 5.02% to 17.17, approaching the closing level of 20.49 on November 5th.

• U.S. industry ETFs showed mixed performance. The healthcare industry ETF rose 1.18%, the biotech index ETF rose 1.09%, the energy sector ETF rose 1.01%, the internet index ETF rose by more than 0.3%, while the banking sector ETF and consumer discretionary ETF fell by about 0.4%, and the semiconductor ETF fell by 0.67%.

• S&P 11 sectors saw mixed movements. The medical care sector rose 1.18%, the energy sector rose 1.00%, the materials sector rose 0.72%, the industrial sector rose 0.10%, the utilities sector rose 0.08%, the telecommunications sector rose 0.07%, the real estate sector fell 0.18%, the essential consumer sector fell 0.18%, the information technology/technology sector fell 0.23%, the financial sector fell 0.28%, and the non-essential consumer sector fell 0.57%.

• In terms of investment research strategy, according to Goldman Sachs analysis, the AI ​​boom is expected to lead to a sharp increase in electricity demand, prompting hedge funds to flock to the nuclear power sector in the third quarter. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon predicts that policies following Trump's election will further invigorate the capital markets. Dubbed the 'Doctor of Doom,' economist Nouriel Roubini has launched an ETF called the Atlas America Fund (ticker symbol USAF) to provide a hedge against inflation resulting from Trump's policies. Roubini warns that Trump's tariff plans may threaten price stability, causing traditional 60/40 investment portfolios to suffer losses.

• The 'Tech Seven Sisters' saw more declines than gains. Nvidia fell 0.76%, with post-market trading results showing that due to strong AI demand, Nvidia's Q3 revenue nearly doubled and still exceeded expectations, but investors seemed unimpressed by the guidance, causing the stock price to drop over 4.7% after hours. Google Class A shares fell 1.21%, Amazon fell 0.85%, Tesla fell 1.15%, Tesla's female chair Susan Dennis cashed out over $35 million this month, and Musk's SpaceX-related closed-end fund Destiny Tech100 fell 16.56%. Microsoft fell 0.55%. 'Metaverse' Meta rose 0.79%, Apple rose 0.32%.

• Chip stocks saw more declines than gains. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ended its decline down 0.71%, dropping over 2.1% at one point during trading. The industry ETF SOXX fell 0.77%. Nvidia's double long ETF fell 1.61%. Qualcomm fell 6.34%, with CEO Cristiano Amon stating that PC chip sales exceeded expectations and the company is steadily progressing with its plan to 'enter new markets'. ASML ADR fell 0.56%, AMD fell 1.28%, Broadcom fell 1.27%, Taiwan Semiconductor ADR fell 0.69%, Intel fell 0.79%, Wolfspeed remained steady, KLA Corp rose 0.19%, Arm Holdings rose 0.48%, Micron Technology rose 0.65%, and ON Semiconductor rose 0.99%.

• Most AI concept stocks declined. Serve Robotics rose 1.51%, Oracle rose 0.98%, BigBear.ai rose 1.46%, Super Micro Computer fell 8.74%, BullFrog AI fell 9.42%, C3.ai fell 1.82%, CrowdStrike fell 0.89%, Palantir fell 1.37%, Snowflake fell 0.86%, but surged over 18% after hours due to an expected Q4 product revenue range of $0.906 billion to $0.911 billion exceeding analyst expectations, and the company's acquisition of DataVolo. Nvidia-backed AI voice company SoundHound AI fell 1.08%, and Dell Technologies fell 1.43%.

• Most China concept stocks rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.44%. In ETFs, the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose 1.73%, the FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) rose 1.06%, and the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose 1.06%. The FTSE A50 futures index continued its night session decline by 0.14% to 13,409.000 points.

• Among the popular china concept stocks, Kingsoft Cloud rose by 42.27%, Full Truck Alliance rose by 14.82%, with a quarterly revenue of 3.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%, and a record high net income. Earlier on November 20th, the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued new rules for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry. Daqo New Energy rose by 9.83%, JinkoSolar rose by 7.64%, and Canadian Solar rose by 6.69%. NIO rose by 0.43%, initially dropping by over 6.9%. Q3 revenue increased by 7.0% quarter-on-quarter, with Q4 deliveries and revenue guidance hitting a historical high. Alibaba fell by 0.39%, issuing its first USD bonds of 2021 to provide funds for repurchasing. Yeechoo Technology, Yatsen E-commerce rose by over 11%, Zeekr rose by approximately 8.5%, Bilibili rose by over 3.6%, NetEase by 2.2%, XPeng by 1.3%, Pinduoduo, and Li Auto dropped by over 1%.

• Bitcoin created a new high, with more gains than losses in the crypto concept stocks. Ideanomics, known as the "demon stock" of cryptos, rose by 40%, BTC Digital rose by 10.91%, MicroStrategy, a major holder of Bitcoin, rose by 10%, surpassing a market cap of 100 billion dollars. Meanwhile, the crypto exchange Coinbase fell by 1.4%.

• Other key stocks: (1) Despite Walmart raising its profit guidance, Target, also a discount retailer, fell by 21.41%, with its Q3 financial report falling below expectations and a downgrade in annual profit guidance. (2) Ford fell by 2.9%, planning to cut 4,000 jobs in Europe by the end of 2027. (3) Nuclear company Oklo, in which Sam Altman holds shares, initially dropped by over 10% and closed down by 3.9% after short-seller Kerrisdale disclosed. (4) Beauty company e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) fell by over 15% and closed down by 2.23% after muddy waters revealed their short position. Muddy Waters CEO and short-seller Carson Block announced at the Sohn event in London, UK, that he was shorting the stock of Elf Beauty Inc., citing concerns about the company's revenue.

Investors assess the tense situation in Russia, causing the pan-European STOXX 600 index to drop for the fourth consecutive day. Various sectors saw mixed movements, with the UK software company Sage Group rising by 18%, exceeding expectations with a 21% growth in annual operating profit. French industrial bank UBS Group believes that European stock markets are expected to moderately rise in 2025.

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell by 0.02% to 500.49 points. The Euro STOXX 50 index fell by 0.45%, while the FTSE Europe All-Share Index rose by 0.01%.

• The German DAX 30 index fell by 0.29%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.43%, the Italian FTSE MIB index fell by 0.29%, the UK FTSE100 index fell by 0.17%, the Netherlands AEX index fell by 0.40%, and the Spanish IBEX 35 index rose by 0.01%.

Early tensions in Russia and Ukraine escalated, leading to buying of US bonds in the morning. The US bond yields briefly dropped to intraday lows, but the 20-year US bond auction results turned bad. In addition, comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened rate cut expectations. Governor Bowman mentioned a stagnant 2% inflation target, which raised US bond yields, with the 2-year US bond yield eventually rising by about 2.8 basis points. UK CPI exceeded expectations, with the 10-year UK bond yield rising by over 2 basis points.

• US bonds: by the close, the US 10-year benchmark bond yield rose by 1.38 basis points to 4.41%, trading in a range of 4.3864% to 4.4355% intraday. The 2-year US bond yield rose by 2.77 basis points to 4.3081%, trading in a range of 4.2655% to 4.3123% intraday.

• European Bonds: At the end of the European market session, the German 10-year benchmark bond yield in the eurozone rose by 1.3 basis points to 2.351%, spending most of the day in an upward trend. The 2-year German bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points to 2.131%. The French 10-year bond yield rose by 2.8 basis points. The Italian 10-year bond yield rose by 2.6 basis points. The UK 10-year bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points, while the 2-year UK bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points.

The U.S. dollar index increased by over 0.4%, the Japanese yen fell to 156, and inflation data briefly pushed up the British pound, with Bitcoin futures hitting a new high approaching 0.095 million USD.

• U.S. Dollar: The DXY U.S. dollar index rose by 0.42% to 106.654 points, with an intraday trading range of 106.113-106.918, slightly retracing gains after hitting a daily high at 00:12 Beijing time. The Bloomberg dollar index rose by 0.43% to 1283.95 points, with an intraday trading range of 1277.22-1285.61 points.

• Non-U.S. currencies: The euro fell by 0.467% against the U.S. dollar to 1.0543, declining throughout the day. The British pound fell by 0.22% against the U.S. dollar to 1.2653. After the UK CPI data release, it briefly rose to a daily high of 1.2715. The U.S. dollar rose by 0.24% against the Swiss franc to 0.8841. Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell by 0.40% against the U.S. dollar, the New Zealand dollar fell by 0.57% against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar rose by 0.14% against the Canadian dollar. The Swedish krona fell by 0.94% against the U.S. dollar, and the Norwegian krone fell by 0.73% against the U.S. dollar.

• Yen rose and then fell back: Yen against the US dollar fell 0.50% at the close, reporting 155.44 yen, with an intraday trading range of 154.53-155.89 yen.

• Offshore Renminbi (CNH): Offshore Renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar reported 7.2511 yuan at 05:59 Beijing time, a decrease of 145 points from the New York end of Wednesday, trading overall within the range of 7.2320-7.2562 yuan intraday.

• Cryptocurrency: The largest cryptocurrency leader Bitcoin futures surged to $0.095 million to hit a historical high. The Trump team is considering establishing a cryptocurrency position at the White House in the US for the first time. They have held multiple consultations with executives in the digital currency industry this week.

Despite the tensions between major oil-producing countries Russia and Ukraine pushing oil prices higher, oil prices eventually plummeted to the daily low due to the unexpected increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories in the US last week. Ice and snow triggered extensive weather alerts in the UK. This week, Arctic air swept across northern Europe, boosting heating demand. UK natural gas futures rose by nearly 2%, while Dutch natural gas futures also increased by 1.8%:

• US oil: WTI December crude oil futures closed down $0.52, a decrease of nearly 0.75%, at $68.87 per barrel. In pre-market trading, US oil hit a daily high, rose nearly 1.1% to break above $70.10, then sharply declined after the EIA crude oil inventory data was released, hitting a low of over 0.9% below $68.80 after noon trading.

• Brent oil: Brent January crude oil futures closed down $0.50, dropping over 0.68%, at $72.81 per barrel. In pre-market trading, Brent oil hit a daily high, rose nearly 0.9% to approach $74, then similarly plunged down by over 0.8% to near $72.70.

• On the news front, the US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by over 0.5 million barrels last week, reaching a two-year high in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). According to Christian Drolshagen, a partner at Aegis Hedging, despite an increase in geopolitical risks, long positions in US oil have significantly declined. According to CFTC data, hedge funds only hold 50% of summer levels. On the other hand, the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on a ceasefire in Gaza on Wednesday, as the Middle East conflict continues, the market is concerned about potential supply disruptions, and war risk premiums are rising. Kilduff from Again Capital stated that the market is very concerned about the possibility of a further escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran. CNBC cited three OPEC+ sources familiar with the discussions revealing that due to weak global oil demand, OPEC+ may once again postpone production increases at the December 1 meeting.

• Natural Gas: NYMEX December US natural gas futures closed up 6.50% at $3.1930 per million British thermal units. The European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose by 1.80% to 46.840 euros per megawatt-hour. ICE UK natural gas futures rose by 1.93% to 116.960 pence per therm.

Although the dollar's rebound partially limited the increase in gold prices, due to escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, safe-haven demand drove gold prices up for three consecutive days, touching a one-week high. New York gold futures rose 0.8% on Wednesday, returning above $2650.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose 0.81% to $2652.30 per ounce at the end of the session. Spot gold reversed its earlier gains, with European stocks falling by over 0.5% to breach $2620, followed by a continuous rise. At midday in the US stock market, it rose by nearly 0.9% to break through $2650, rising 0.67% at the end of the session to $2649.60 per ounce.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures fell 1.26% at the end of the session, to $30.90 per ounce. During the Asian session, spot silver rose by nearly 0.4% to surpass $31.30, then fluctuated downwards. Near the end of the session, it fell by almost 1.4% to break through $30.80, ending down 1.16% at $30.8550 per ounce.

• On the news front, UBS predicts that although a stronger dollar and concerns about increased US fiscal stimulus may lead to short-term consolidation in gold prices, the increase in central bank holdings will drive gold prices back up. It is expected to reach $2900 per ounce by the end of next year, aligning with Goldman Sachs' bullish view. The price of gold is expected to slightly increase to $2950 per ounce by the end of 2026.

• London industrial metals rose across the board: London copper rose $2 to $9,090 per ton. London aluminum remained flat at $2,644 per ton. COMEX copper futures fell by 0.54%, to $4.1510 per pound. London zinc rose by $36, nearly 1.22%, to $2,988 per ton. London lead rose by $20, approximately 1.00%, to $2,021 per ton. London nickel rose by $40 to $15,906 per ton. London tin rose by $146 to $29,026 per ton. London cobalt remained flat at $24,300 per ton.

Editor / jayden