Tonight nvidia's financial report will have a greater impact on the US stock market than US employment data, inflation data or even the Federal Reserve meeting.
Nvidia will release its third-quarter financial report after the U.S. stock market on Wednesday, providing Wall Street with the latest and best perspective on the strength of artificial intelligence trading.
As the world's largest listed company by market cap, Nvidia's stock price continued to soar in 2024, benefiting from the explosive growth of artificial intelligence in the entire technology sector and other fields.
As of Wednesday, Nvidia's stock price has risen by 196% this year, easily surpassing all chip manufacturers' competitors. The stock price of its closest competitor, AMD, has fallen by more than 5% so far this year, while Intel, which is struggling to turn the tide, has plummeted by nearly 52%.
According to analysts compiled by foreign media, Nvidia is expected to have an EPS of $0.74 in the third quarter, with revenue of $33.2 billion. This represents an 83% increase from the EPS of $0.40 and revenue of $22.1 billion in the same period last year.
Nvidia's largest business segment - the Datacenter segment, is expected to bring in $29 billion in revenue this quarter. This represents a 100% increase from the $14.5 billion in the third quarter of last year.
Gaming revenue is expected to reach $3 billion, a 7% increase from last year's $2.8 billion, with analysts also expecting a gross margin of 75%.
Investors are not only concerned about whether Nvidia's third-quarter performance exceeds expectations but also whether it will raise its fourth-quarter expectations. Analysts expect Nvidia to guide fourth-quarter revenue to $37 billion.
However, even if this leader in artificial intelligence chips delivers excellent financial results and outlook, its stock price may still decline. In the second quarter, despite Nvidia's performance exceeding expectations and guidance outperforming as well, its stock price immediately dropped by 6% after the earnings announcement. This may indicate that some investors do not find Nvidia's performance as impressive as in previous quarters, or it may simply be investors choosing to take profits. In the previous quarters, its revenue increased by 200%, with earnings per share growing by nearly 600%.
Gonzalo Asis, a Bank of America Securities stock analyst, wrote that in fact, the options market believes that Nvidia's performance's impact on the S&P 500 index will surpass US employment data, inflation data, and even the Federal Reserve meetings. Investors will not only focus on Nvidia's sales from the previous quarter. They want to know if this chip manufacturer's next-generation Blackwell chip can maintain or even strengthen its leading position in the AI chip industry.
Investors will also pay attention to CEO Huang Renxun's insights on Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell series AI chips, which are used for training and running AI applications. During the company's last earnings call in August, Huang Renxun mentioned that the production of Blackwell will increase in the fourth quarter, expecting these chips to generate billions of dollars in revenue at that time.
At that time, Huang Renxun stated that the demand for Blackwell had exceeded supply and anticipated this situation to continue for the next year. Furthermore, he also mentioned that the predecessor of the Blackwell series, the Hopper chip, is expected to continue strong sales in the fourth quarter.
However, recent reports suggest that the Blackwell chips are prone to overheating in custom servers, causing concerns. Nonetheless, Asis pointed out that while past performance does not guarantee future results, this is something every investor is aware of. Considering Nvidia's excellent performance over the past two years, it is hard to imagine any other assets that can provide investors with the same level of security.
It is worth noting that given Trump's threat to impose comprehensive tariffs on products worldwide, Nvidia faces an uncertain future.
In addition, the President-elect has also proposed the possibility of imposing tariffs on chips manufactured in China Taiwan, while Nvidia's vast majority of chips are manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor. Tariffs could mean Nvidia raising prices on its AI chips, thereby reducing profit margins, or passing on the increased costs to customers. Investors will certainly pay attention to any guidance Huang Renxun provides in this regard.